In late June, most of our country entered the low season of fertilizer consumption. As the "top priority" of compound fertilizer in the first half of the year, the Xia Jifei market has come to an end. In view of the overall situation of the compound fertilizer market this summer, the trend of market development is basically consistent with the spring market, especially in the middle front market.

Following the end of the first half of the compound fertilizer market, the fertilizer market in the second half of the second half of the year was pushed to the "wind and wave". At the present stage, some compound fertilizer enterprises are stopping and overhauling, waiting to purchase raw materials and preparing for the next stage of production. Although the related prices and policies of autumn fertilizer are not clear, most of the enterprises are already open. It is expected that after the end of June, it will show itself. Combined with the actual factors at present, most of the enterprises in the autumn fertilizer market will be quoted or will be slightly higher than the previous average, and the supply of local areas will be slightly tense.

First of all, raw materials are rising and costs are strong. Low season demand, compound fertilizer enterprise quotation is more fuzzy, more implementation of a single policy, raw material prices high, this summer compound fertilizer price is higher than the same period last year, the same subject to the impact of the stock market collective, expected fall fertilizer price level will also slightly rise. According to China fertilizer network, as of the end of this week, the Shandong region urea mainstream out of the factory quoted price of 1970-2040 yuan (ton price, the same below), in the short term, the enterprise started low position, the price or will be stable; in some areas, the autumn fertilizer is mainly high phosphorus type, the amount of one ammonium is more, because the autumn demand is about to be released, plus part of the one ammonium enterprise started to start. Not enough, so it is expected that the next ammonium price will rise; the market for potash fertilizer seems to be also in the right way. 18 years of potash import contracts are signed, and the foreign parties insist on raising the price of the offer, which may support the domestic price. At present, the price of all kinds of raw materials is at a high level, and the cost of compound fertilizer will increase, so the price of fertilizer will increase in autumn.

Second, demand for autumn is adequate and grain prices are rising.  Autumn market, can be said to be the most important part of the year sales, the success or failure of the fall market determines the sales level of the whole year of the enterprise, which is the "place of war for war". It is understood that the wheat cultivation in China is all over the country, of which the northern winter wheat area and the southern winter wheat area account for about 2/3 of the whole area. Thus, the demand for the compound fertilizer in the lower reaches is considerable. In addition, after the price of wheat is soaring, the recent wheat purchase price has become stable, and the trade is land. Continued shipment, this summer wheat price fluctuation dominated, boosted the farmers' confidence in preparing fertilizer, thus indirectly enhancing the purchasing capacity of the lower reaches. Therefore, the price trend of autumn fertilizer is also more optimistic under the lead of demand and the promotion of grain price.

Finally, the situation of environmental protection is grim and the enterprises are limited in starting up. At the end of May, 6 central environmental protection inspectors began to be set up. They were responsible for the "look back" inspectors in Hebei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and other provinces. According to the arrangement, 6 inspectors have been stationed in inspectors recently. The large-scale start up of environmental protection inspection reflects the determination of the central authorities to fight hard for pollution prevention and control, and is also the embodiment of the normalization of the overall environmental protection in the future. With the beginning of this round of environmental inspection, the normal production of enterprises in various places will have more or less impact, especially in the small and medium enterprises in local areas. Once the environmental pressure continues to fall in the autumn fertilizer and fertilizer peak season, there will be a tight price situation in some parts of the region. Therefore, the enterprises are not under construction again on the price of autumn fertilizer. Good profit.

To sum up, the good price of high phosphate fertilizer in autumn is expected to make the price of high phosphate fertilizer in autumn, but in the last few years, the fertilizer market is weak. In order to seize the market opportunity and win the market share, some enterprises in the next autumn fertilizer order will be expected to introduce the relevant preferential policies in succession.