Recently because of urea agricultural demand into the weak season, although there is a small amount of fertilizer demand in Jiangsu and Anhui market, and after July, the urea price rebounded, but oversupply, the quotation is only a flash in the pan, and continued to decline, some of the industry can not help saying: today, his family of urea reduced by 30 (yuan / tons), tomorrow, my house will dare to drop 50 (yuan / ton). As Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places have been sent to the low price urea, the price of urea in the main areas of Shandong and other rivers has been drastically reduced. Under the situation of lack of confidence in the market, the price of urea is difficult to decline, even the single day of individual enterprises fall more than 70 yuan per ton on Friday. In the price reduction of urea, we should take a careful look at the price of urea in the case of weak demand. Then what can urea in this reduction be able to weaken in this price reduction? The main points are as follows:

First, the cost factor. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the total cost of the pulverized coal gasification equipment in the urea enterprise is 1450-1500 yuan per ton, and the total cost of urea in the traditional anthracite process is between 1680-1800 yuan / ton. The cost of the gas head enterprise is higher than that of the above price. According to the current transaction price of the enterprises, the price of the urea outside the Xinjiang and other places has already been issued. Down to 1450 yuan / ton, the price of urea production in Shandong also tends to be about 1800 yuan / ton. When the price of urea enterprises is close to the cost, the possibility of further reduction should still be reduced, but the scope should be gradually reduced.

Second, the start rate of the enterprise. As the recent urea market is relatively strong, some enterprises plan to enter the annual overhaul in the near future. Even the Northeast enterprises have already entered the maintenance stage for some time. The current urea industry start rate has fallen to 55.89%, 1 percentage points fell last week. This week the production of urea flat is about 140 thousand tons, and is environmentally friendly. And the influence of other factors, Shanxi Jincheng urea enterprises in the near future will be limited to 30%, so in the short term the supply of the overall urea market will be further reduced, for the sale of urea enterprises can temporarily reduce pressure, for the price play a certain support.

Finally, the demand is supported. The large peak season in China has passed, although autumn is the main battlefield of high phosphate fertilizer, but there is also a certain amount of demand for urea. According to the official entry of North China base in mid September, the compound fertilizer enterprise will buy a large amount of urea in the middle of August, on the other hand, on the other hand, the export needs to be supported, this year the price of urea is high in China. In the international market, the enthusiasm of the export of enterprises is relatively low. In the near future, because of the low price of urea in China, some enterprises have gradually increased their attention to export. According to the current guidance price and exchange rate of China's urea offshore, the current Chinese urea FOB price is at 1940-1980 yuan per ton, although the price of urea at home and abroad is at home and abroad. There is still a certain gap, but if domestic urea goes down further, it is impossible for enterprises to ease supply pressure through export.

It is expected that urea prices will continue to slide further in the near future because of the limited demand for urea and a stronger wait-and-see mentality in the lower reaches, but it is expected that the price reduction of urea in the later period of supply and demand is expected to return to moderation.