Has reached the peak of chemical fertilizer sales again. This year, the autumn sales of chemical fertilizers started early, and the competition is great, showing a new change which is not quite the same as before. Moreover, the market performance of several main varieties is completely different, affecting the judgment of some distributors and farmers. Then, the curtain of autumn sales has been opened. How should we make a choice?

It was hot in the first half of the year and cold in the second half. This is the market performance of urea this year. Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the cumulative average price of domestic small granular urea was 1997 yuan / ton, up 21.39% compared with the same period last year; the cumulative average price of large granular urea was 1992 yuan / ton, up 24.03% compared with the same period last year. Chuo Chuang information urea analyst Tonfei believes that the second half of the urea market will continue a weak downward trend, the second half of the urea factory average price is expected to be around 1750 to 1950 yuan / ton, hot up and cold down is determined by its nature of use.

TOEFEFIE: Fertilizer is used for four quarters of the year until spring. It's a reserve time, not a digestion time.

In general, the overall trend of urea has been decided. In the autumn, Tang Feifei suggested:

_Toffey: We can build warehouses one after another from now on, but we don't recommend storing more because there are more substitutes for urea. Urea can be used, high nitrogen fertilizer can also be used, or even small nitrogen fertilizer can be used, so farmers can build warehouses one after another, industrial words can be used with production.

The trend of phosphorus fertilizer market is very different from that of urea market, but the trend of phosphorus fertilizer market is very tangled: suddenly, the price of phosphorus fertilizer is rising; from the overall situation, the price of phosphorus fertilizer is stable; from the future market, the price of phosphorus fertilizer is uncertain. Xiao Li, an analyst at Zhuochang Information Phosphorus Fertilizer, said that the price of phosphate fertilizer had risen partially because of export stimulus.

_Xiaoli: One is because of the depreciation of the RMB, the other is because of the rise of raw materials, the price of phosphate fertilizer has been picked up. Enterprises are seizing the time to use a better period of time to export, whether in quantity or price, are much better than last year, so phosphate fertilizer is now basically in supply and export.

Ammonium monophosphate and diammonium phosphate are the main types of phosphate fertilizers. Affected by them, the export price has increased by 10% compared with last year. However, the increase is actually limited to export price, but the domestic price is a different situation.

_Xiaoli: There are receipts for this piece in China, but it will not be shipped until the later stage. There are no goods on the market now, and the supply is tight.

Because of the high export profit and limited domestic supply of phosphate fertilizer, the domestic sales of phosphate fertilizer did not reach the peak after September, and the resellers'willingness to stock was general, so the price of phosphate fertilizer in the domestic market remained stable. So what happens next when exports are basically over and phosphate supplies are mainly diverted to the domestic market?

Shaoli: Because the price of raw materials will certainly rise in the later period, phosphate rock or sulphuric acid, the price of raw materials will not go down, the production cost is relatively high, but the demand downstream is not very large, now the phosphate fertilizer is also more tangled.

Because compound fertilizer can replace phosphate fertilizer, various factors affecting the price are intertwined, so it is difficult to judge the market trend of phosphate fertilizer after September. In this case, if the demand of farmers is relatively large can be ready to order at this time, if not large or when it is safe to buy again.

If the export side of phosphorus fertilizer market is booming, then domestic sales, compound fertilizer is in full swing. The loud noise of gongs and drums refers to the fact that many compound fertilizer distributors are trying their best to sell their stock.

Chen Hong, Compound Fertilizer Analyst with _Zhuozhuang Information, said: Because distributors in the compound fertilizer market are anxious to shop ahead of schedule, there will be some promotional policies at the village level.

_Statistics show that before June this year, compound fertilizer prices as a whole showed a downward trend, bringing greater pressure on manufacturers. In mid-late July, some manufacturers began to formulate the latest quotation, the increase reached 50 to 100 yuan / ton, in the face of this increase, dealers appeared exclusive psychology, but they were worried about "off-season price increases, peak season price decline" situation, worried about the risk of production enterprises transferred to their own, so they tightened the stock shop. Goods. Analyst Chen Hong believes that there are many variables that affect the market of compound fertilizer, and farmers should prepare fertilizer according to their own conditions.

_Chen Hong: If the farmers have more money on hand, they can prepare fertilizer according to the specific promotion policies, but if the farmers have a limited amount of their own, there are only one or two bags of fertilizer, they can buy it when they use fertilizer.