Since Thursday (August 2) urea prices have risen from a small range of Shandong-Hebei-Shanxi producers and from Henan-Jiangsu-Anhui producers to a low high-end price at the same time. Shandong Lianghe urea factory ex-factory quotation has reached 1870-1900 yuan / ton, the actual transaction, Linyi receiving price has been consolidated from the low-end 1860-1880 yuan / ton first rose to 1910-1920 yuan / ton (as of August 10), urea prices do show a general rise! Now the market is a little flat in the Northeast and Northwest, the relationship between seasons, temporarily do not study these areas.

The main factors causing the urea boom are the low start-up rate, the change of dealer mentality, the low-price waiting orders of urea manufacturers, etc. Specifically, first of all, due to the high temperature in Hebei Province, Shandong Province, urea manufacturers load slightly decreased, environmental inspection, equipment failure and planned off-season maintenance. Some urea factories in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi Province, Hebei Province, Shaanxi Province, Shaanxi Province, Ningxia Province, cut down or are ready to stop production. Although some factories in Inner Mongolia, Henan Province, Ningxia have increased their load and resumed production, the urea industry still has a low starting rate of about 51%. Secondly, after most urea producers received orders for 30,000 to 50,000 tons below the mainstream price in late July and early August, and immediately stopped collecting at a low price, the mentality of those dealers who did not get them has gradually changed. As it is generally believed that there is little room for further price falls and the rate of start-up is so low, they have also started to take small quantities of them to help raise urea prices. Power. Thirdly, urea manufacturers have a little more low-priced pending orders, less than 10,000 tons, more than 30-50,000 tons, plus the previous Fed orders have begun to settle, the price increase is very conducive to the recent operation. Finally, considering the pressure of environmental protection and the rumor that Southwest Natural Gas may be limited by 30%, urea start-up rate may continue to be low, urea manufacturers temporarily have no sales pressure, price increases can attract the eyes of downstream customers, it does not matter how long it can last.

Urea is expected to rise, the time ahead to the beginning of August is a surprise to most industry, the following to see how the downstream demand side to deal with the situation of urea prices.

Compound fertilizer enterprises: have successively received a certain amount of urea or low-cost or fed urea, autumn fertilizer mainly high-phosphorus fertilizer, urea demand is lower than the spring and summer demand, but if urea prices continue to rise for more than two weeks, then have to purchase a slightly large number of new urea sources.

Plywood factories, power plants: continue to operate in accordance with a more fixed urea procurement cycle, urea prices will increase the cost of goods, and we do not seem to have much to do with, after all, under the pressure of environmental protection, normal production is enough.

Small and Medium Distributors: Previously thought that urea prices did not seem to have much room to fall, that the risk of picking up goods is not big, before and at the beginning of the price increase has begun to pick up goods, the small and medium-sized distributors with sufficient funds are also picking up a small amount of goods at the price after the rise, ready to sell one after another.

Big Agricultural Capital Corporation: mostly on the lookout, think that the ingredients of speculation in the price increase is slightly larger, waiting for the urea start rate to rise sharply in a period of time before starting to pick up goods, if the price all the way up, can only take goods at a high price, continue to assume responsibility as the urea market reservoir.

Simply put, those who have already done risk assessment should not worry too much, and plan early when there are signs of a sudden rebound in urea start-up rate; those who do not have the goods, though slightly regrettable, have a great deal of policy variables on urea start-up rate, and the quantity of urea imported into China in the fourth quarter may be clear.  It's just as easy to see which one gets the upper hand over a longer period of time (after all, the profits of those who take delivery of the goods during the price rise in the second half of 2016-2017 are good, and the key to the price rise and fall in 2018 is still whether the urea industry's operating rate will remain low).