July has been Ansheng, August quietly arrived, for the compound fertilizer market, the state of no shock has not changed much. After the first round of autumn fertilizer collection work, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises have begun to ship, the main shipping areas are still north of the Yangtze River and near the Central Plains, but compared with early July, Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are very slow in the progress of new receipts, urea consolidation in the low position, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is serious.

First of all, the demand for fertilizer in autumn is reduced, and the progress of new round of collection of compound fertilizer enterprises is blocked. After the first round of autumn fertilizer collection work in early July, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are not satisfied with their collection. The main reason is that the price of wheat at the grass-roots level is not high, and even there are losses in some areas. Therefore, the enthusiasm of planting in the later period is not high, and the desire of purchasing chemical fertilizer is not strong in the near future. This may be the normal state of the market demand for chemical fertilizer in recent years. Farmers'confidence in farming has been hit by the sustained decline in the prices of agricultural products. At the same time, the competition in the fertilizer market has been intensified. Explosives from various enterprises have occurred frequently and the fertilizer market in autumn has been in chaos.

Second, compound fertilizer enterprises started to pick up slowly, and most enterprises had little pressure on inventory. According to the incomplete survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the average start-up rate of most large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises rose only 3-4 percentage points in July. At present, the start-up rate is about 46%. Why is the start-up rate rising so slowly? On the one hand, environmental pressure normalization, recently heard that the environmental protection team again stationed in Hubei area, after the national tour, a new round of environmental inspection is about to start, just as last August, the power of environmental inspection can not be underestimated, followed by a comprehensive increase in fertilizer stage, and this year's environmental protection can bring the same effect? On the other hand, although the price of urea is going down step by step, the price of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer is still at a high level. For compound fertilizer enterprises, the cost increase is not a little bit, but the price of compound fertilizer formulated under high cost is difficult to be accepted by the market. Compound fertilizer enterprises are in an awkward position and can only start work at a low level. Expect to see someone who never comes.

Finally, the price of urea is at a low level, when it will hit bottom or become the Savior of autumn fertilizer. Although urea can not be used as the main raw material for autumn fertilizer, some enterprises produce high-phosphorus fertilizer, some enterprises use ammonium chloride instead of urea, but urea market is still a downstream wait-and-see market vane, the current fertilizer people are more concerned about when urea can hit bottom rebound, of course, compound fertilizer enterprises are also concerned, once rebound Confidence in the downstream fertilizer preparation will also be strengthened, so the autumn fertilizer market will slowly move up, but according to the analysis of China's fertilizer network, urea will enter a rebound observation period after August, so in the short term compound fertilizer may still be "on the troop" and the long-term trend of raw materials urea and phosphorus fertilizer market dynamics should be concerned at all times. Of course, the recent part of the downstream fertilizer has begun to "ready to move".

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