In mid-October, demand for autumn has entered a sweeping phase, winter storage demand has not yet fully started, compound fertilizer market has entered a short period of breathing, and then raw material urea prices rise uneasily, just a golden week, urea prices like a rocket, all the way to 2200, then urea rise so crazy, resume. Is Hefei's price rise letting nature take its course? Is the price rise in line with common sense?

First of all, why is the price of urea going to fly? At present, the price of small granular urea in Lianghe District of Shandong Province has risen to about 2180-2200 yuan per ton. The main reason for the price increase is the support of international demand. This time India purchased 558,000 tons of urea, and China won about 120,000 tons of urea. The quantity is not too large. However, the sound of domestic price increase before bidding has been rising, leading to the urea price increase. On the road, then the urea price will continue to uplink later? At present, the domestic compound fertilizer enterprises keep a wait-and-see attitude toward the high price of urea, the domestic agricultural demand is less, and the willingness to store urea in winter is not strong, so the urea quotation in the near future has the possibility of stable or slight decline, as for the latter part of the market. Rumors that urea will soar to more than 2,500 yuan per ton remain to be seen. After all, industrial demand will start in the latter part of the year. Whether India's bidding will continue, environmental protection and gas restrictions need close attention.

Secondly, is the price of compound fertilizer facing the price without market? Recently, the demand for compound fertilizer in autumn is coming to an end, and the start-up of winter storage is still relatively slow, the slow reason is still unacceptable to the current high price. It is unreasonable that the price of compound fertilizer will not rise with the urea price increase during the National Day and the recent week. However, according to the survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are still in the main supply of pre-order, and there are few new orders after the price increase. The actual significance of this stage of price increase is to promote the completion of autumn fertilizer replenishment. After the end of the United States, the fat market in autumn is still good.

Thirdly, is it possible for the late compound fertilizer to store in winter? For compound fertilizer enterprises, besides urea, monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and so on are running at a high level. According to the current raw material cost, the pure raw material cost of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is more than 2200 yuan / ton. Adding various additional costs, the complete cost of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is 2400 yuan / ton. Tons or more, so although the recent price of compound fertilizer rose, but the increase is not too big, the price is based on the current cost estimates to come out, but the late winter storage price will rise again, then it depends on whether there is room for raw materials to rise again, or long-term high stability, then this stage of compound fertilizer quotation can be. In the long run, the market for winter storage of compound fertilizers is likely to rise, but all favorable conditions are needed to fully support it.

Finally, no matter how fierce the rise in raw materials may be, the concept of winter storage has become increasingly weak in people's minds, and distributors who get low prices in August and September can sit back and watch it, but distributors who haven't yet got the goods can look around. Most compound fertilizer enterprises also choose to take a break before the conference and pay close attention to it. Market outlook.