With the shutdown of Ningxia Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical Urea Plant due to natural gas restriction in mid-September, the curtain of natural gas restriction shutdown has been drawn up. Recently, with the approaching heating period in the northern region, more urea enterprises will determine the shutdown process. It is reported that most of the gas-limited urea plants will shut down in late October to November.

Summary of the 2018-2019 years of winter natural gas enterprises have the following three characteristics:

No. 1: early parking time

_2018-2019, CNPC Ningxia Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical shut down on September 13-15, other installations are expected to be concentrated in late October and November. In the winter of 2017-2018, urea enterprises parking reduced production mostly in mid-November to early December, this year the parking time has significantly moved forward, moving forward more than 20 Days-1 month.

Two: long parking time

Some urea manufacturers in Southwest China disclosed that the urea plant in Southwest China adopted the policy of "stop three and limit two" from 2018 to 2019. From November 2018 to March 2019, the plant was shut down for three months and the remaining two months were in a 30% limit. During the period, the factory turns to stop the car. The earliest hearing will be in October 25th. Tomorrow, China National Petroleum and major fertilizer companies in Southwest China will discuss the supply of natural gas in the winter of 2018-2019, and will also determine the winter shutdown time for this year.

Summary of parking and resumption of urea production in Southwest China from 2017 to 2018 is as follows. The parking time is mostly between 50 and 90 days. If the parking time is extended to 3 months (about 90 days) this year, the output of urea production in Southwest China will be significantly lower than that in the same period in previous years.

Three: natural gas price is high.

The natural gas prices of some urea enterprises in Southwest China were raised by 0.1 yuan/cubic meter in August, and the urea costs were raised by 60 yuan/ton. From November 1, the planned natural gas prices were raised by 22.7% and the urea costs were increased by 225-239 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 285-300 yuan/ton. However, only part of last winter's air-conditioning period adopted the bidding policy, with a rise of 0.3 yuan per cubic meter and a corresponding increase of 180-200 yuan per ton in urea. The specific price is estimated as follows.

_only calculates the effect of planned price adjustment on urea cost. Unplanned gas is obtained by competitive bidding, the upper limit of increase is 38% - 40%. If unplanned natural gas is bidded according to 2.1 yuan / cubic meter, the highest bidding price is 2.94 yuan / cubic meter, and the probability of urea enterprise getting gas is small, so the bidding for gas is "expected but not available" state. Other costs may not be as low as parking costs.

Urea prices are at a relatively high historical level in 2018. Most urea enterprises'profits have been significantly increased. However, the supply of natural gas is tight. The Limited gas output of gas-head urea enterprises is significantly lower than that of the same period in previous years. The profit of some urea enterprises is weak. In addition, the market situation of gas-head urea Enterprises is facing enormous challenges due to future gas-limit parking.