Last week (October 15th -10 19), China's chemical fertilizer wholesale price composite index went up slightly. China's fertilizer wholesale price composite index (CFCI) rose 12.53 points, or 0.54%, to 2316.24 on October 22, 315.92 points, or 15.79%, and 62.63 points, or 2.63%, from the base period. China's Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) rose 28.24 points, or 1.14 percent, to 2499.54 on October 22, 211.78 points, or 9.26 percent, and 52.83 points, or 2.16 percent, from the base period.

Supply situation

_Nitrogen fertilizer, urea enterprises stop production and resume production alternately, the overall operating rate has dropped; gas head enterprises affected by tight supply of natural gas, operating rate continued to decline. For phosphate fertilizer, the overall starting rate of diammonium enterprises was 56%, down 2 percentage points from last week, and some enterprises overhauled equipment in off-season. In terms of potash fertilizer, the arrival price of 60% of the base product of salt lake is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, and the operating rate of small factories in Qinghai maintains a low level; in terms of port potassium, large contracts have not yet arrived, large traders scattered the goods, and the shortage of spot supply has eased; and the supply of border trade potassium is still in short supply. In terms of compound fertilizer, the overall operating rate of enterprises is 38%, and some enterprises are equipped with overhauls to prepare for the winter storage market.

Demand situation

_Nitrogen fertilizer, the overall demand for agriculture is light, basically no fertilizer demand around; general industrial demand, downstream on-demand procurement, rubber board plant by environmental pollution control and other work, compound fertilizer enterprises off-season overhaul, start-up rate showed a downward trend, the demand for urea procurement decreased. As for phosphate fertilizer, the winter storage market in Northwest China has started, and manufacturers in Gansu have signed orders until February of the following year; enterprises in the Yangtze River and Yunnan areas are still mainly in the export market, with faster harbor shipping and sporadic new orders. In terms of potash fertilizer, the operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased and the demand for potash fertilizer decreased. In terms of compound fertilizer, the market of autumn fertilizer preparation in North China has been swept to the end. The autumn fertilizer preparation in East China can be sustained until the end of October. The demand for fruit and vegetable fertilizers in South China has begun, and the rigid grassroots farmers need to be released.

International market

_International nitrogen fertilizer prices slightly revised back, the Indian tender was cut in advance, MMTC purchased more than 400,000 tons of Chinese urea; October 22, Pakistan TCP issued a tender, Bangladesh plans to issue a new urea tender, urea demand is still strong. The price of international phosphate fertilizer dropped steadily, and the export price of China's diammonium declined to about $410 per ton FOB, with enterprises taking orders sporadically. International potash prices continue to rise, potential demand in Asia is about to start, Malaysia, Indonesia plantation standard potassium chloride will be tendered in the near future.

Forecast for future market

_Nitrogen fertilizer market, business start-up rate maintained low, gas head enterprises under the influence of natural gas supply restriction, start-up rate declined, urea supply continued to be tight, demand is general; Anthracite prices volatile operation, the cost of urea plays a supporting role; strong international market demand, prices remain high overall, expected in the short term The price of urea will fluctuate in a narrow way. In the phosphate fertilizer market, the supply of diammonium has been narrowed and the demand for winter storage has not appeared yet; the high prices of sulfur, ammonia and phosphate rock have formed strong support for the cost of diammonium, and the price of diammonium is expected to remain stable in the short term as a whole. In the potash market, supply has increased, and the demand for potash from downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the price of potash fertilizer will be stabilized and consolidated mainly in the short term under the support of large contract price. In the compound fertilizer market, enterprises have increased parking, overhaul, fertilizer preparation in autumn, rapid digestion of social stocks, and overall supply has decreased; grass-roots farmers need to release; raw material prices are still high, urea prices are limited, ammonium prices are still likely to rise, potash prices are still high consolidation, the cost of compound fertilizer is still strong support, is expected. In the short term, the price of Hefei is generally stable or has risen slightly.