On the evening of November 6, MMTC of India issued a new round of urea tender. The tender was opened on November 14 and ended on Nov. 21. The tender was valid until Nov. 22 and the ship date was January 7, 2019. At present, the storage price of urea in Linyi is about 2200 yuan (ton price, the same below), urea has not rebounded because of the Indian tender price. Recently, the urea market is in a wait-and-see stage because of the weak demand of industry and agriculture and the uncertainty of "gas limit" time. India issued a new round of bidding for urea market as a whole, but did not make a big response. Only individual traders unilaterally intentionally raised the price, but today the price of No. 8 has really risen. In conclusion, although urea may rebound, it still needs to pay attention to downstream demand, especially the important domestic market demand.

The price of urea should depend on demand. What is the price of ammonium? First, pay attention to the price of ammonium. At present, the quotation of ammonium monoammonium for most enterprises in Hubei, Southwest, Henan and Anhui has remained stable for the time being. The quotation of 55% ammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammonium monoammoni However, it has to be said that the recent market for ammonium monoxide has been slightly weak, the market is relatively light, and the turnover of new single ammonium is not ideal. It is reported that the prices of individual small factories in Hubei have declined, and the prices of individual enterprises in Sichuan have also been appropriately lowered. The prices of individual low-end remittance factories of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei are lower than 2250 yuan, and those of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan are lower than 2300 yuan. . It is reported that 55% of the ammonium powder ports in Yuyuhuan Port of Liaoning Province raise 2410-2420 yuan and 58% of the ammonium powder 2550-2580 yuan. Although most of them are pre-shipment sources, the price is relatively low.

In fact, the most important factor in the price increase of ammonium is demand. In the near future, ammonium is going to go up but not up much. Some compound fertilizer enterprises downstream of the National Day have sought ammonium sourcing, ranging from several thousand tons to tens of thousands of tons respectively. Ammonium enterprises have a small amount of orders. Some compound fertilizer enterprises take goods from many enterprises and traders. Inquiry purchase lasted for about two weeks. Demand for ammonium gradually weakened in recent weeks. The winter storage raw material monoammonium in some downstream compound fertilizer enterprise warehouses gradually increased. It is known that the arrival volume of Monoammonium in Northeast China is about 4-60%, and that in some large factories it reaches 70%. In addition, recent enterprises have entered the maintenance stage, with a low start-up rate and consumption of monoammonium. The pace is slower, so the purchase of ammonium is slowing down.

_Prior to the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises had not issued winter storage policy. Some distributors paid in advance to purchase appropriate amount of compound fertilizer, and were not anxious to reserve compound fertilizer again in the near future. The terminal grain price was not high. Farmers were less enthusiastic about reserving fertilizer, and distributors were collecting compound fertilizer with decreasing profits. Purchase intention is also not big, wait-and-see is the main, waiting for the phosphorus and compound fertilizer conference held gradually clear winter storage policy.

Besides the demand is not ideal, the raw material cost of ammonium also slightly loosened recently. In recent weeks, the price of sulphur has not continued to rise because of the rising US dollar exchange rate. Instead, the price of sulphur has fallen because of the poor demand support in recent period. Although it has rebounded slightly in the later period, the price is not very optimistic. At present, the price of granular sulphur in ports such as the Yangtze River Port has dropped to 1 390 yuan, which is about 150 yuan lower than the previous months'high point. Due to the weakening of methanol market in the upstream of recent years, the mainstream storage price of liquid ammonia in Hubei is 3350-3380 yuan, which is about 200 yuan lower than that after National Day.

_Another reason is that near the conference of phosphate and compound fertilizer, people in the industry in the past years have been watching all kinds of market before the meeting. There will be no action to take a large number of goods rashly, distributors will not rush to pay for the purchase of compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer enterprises will not rush to purchase raw materials, ammonium enterprises will not rush to order new prices or take a large number of orders. We will wait until the meeting is clear.

In summary, in addition to the above negative factors, the sky of Monoammonium appears a little hazy, monoammonium also has some favorable factors to support, such as the price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfuric acid is strong, the central environmental protection supervision group is stationed in Guizhou, Sichuan and Hubei, the main phosphate fertilizer producing areas, and there is still a short-term shortage of ammonium spot, low inventory pressure, etc. Prices should be stable, even if prices are reduced. Later, due to the re-emergence of hard demand, the price of ammonium may also rise slightly. We are waiting for good news.