The annual Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference was held in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, this week. The exhibition hall was full of big coffees in the fertilizer industry. The market of various fertilizer species was also widely discussed at the conference. In previous years, the market will be slightly light on the eve of the Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference. The industry mainly looks forward to the good news after the Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference. After the meeting, the winter storage market gradually became clear, and what trend of fertilizer species will be, it also needs a comprehensive analysis of various factors.

So you are curious about the price situation of various fertilizers during this year's Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference compared with the same period last year? As of Nov. 9 this year, the price of urea delivery in Linyi is about 2200 yuan (ton price, the same below). On Nov. 10 last year, the price of urea delivery in Linyi is about 1750-1760 yuan, and the price of urea is about 400 yuan higher. Take the price of 60% crystal potassium chloride in Salt Lake as an example. In recent days, Salt Lake introduced a new price in November. The price of 60% crystal for agent arrival rose to 2400 yuan. Last year, 60% crystal for agent arrival quotation was 1950 yuan, monthly return was 50 yuan, and the price of potassium fertilizer rose about 500 yuan.

What is the situation of ammonium? At present, the acceptance price of 55% of powdery ammonium in Hubei province is 2500 yuan or slightly lower than that of Shandong province. Last year, the acceptance price of 55% of powdery ammonium in Shandong province is around 2400-2450 yuan. Two years'comparison shows that the price of Monoammonium is basically flat, and has not risen as much as that of urea and potassium chloride by several hundred yuan. As can be seen from the chart below, the price of ammonium showed an upward trend near last year's Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference, while the price of ammonium showed a steady trend around November this year. Why is this embarrassing state? What is the difference between this year and last year?

I remember last year's ammonium has been on the upward trend since September, mainly relying on enterprises to adjust their production structure and restrict production, coupled with the provincial and central environmental protection inspection "boost the flames", the overall spot demand of ammonium is difficult, the price "all the way high song", Sichuan large factory from early September to early November 55% of ammonium powder factory. The quotation rose from 1750 yuan to 2450 yuan. At present, the central environmental protection supervision group's "looking back" stationed in Hubei, Sichuan and Guizhou, which are the main producing areas of ammonium phosphate, has not yet had a great impact on the overall starting rate of monoammonium. Some enterprises have also undergone two years of improvement and management, and the environmental impact assessment has gradually reached the standard. Therefore, most enterprises can start construction, and the current starting rate of Monoammonium in Hubei maintains a high water level. Level 6 or above. Although the current inventory pressure of ammonium enterprises is not large, the spot is not much, there are remaining orders to be issued to implement, but the start-up rate is relatively high last year.

Compound fertilizer enterprises in Northeast China are quite confident in the market of ammonium this year. They also know that the cost of raw materials for ammonium is high, but it is difficult to decrease. Therefore, compared with previous years, they store raw materials for winter storage in advance. It is known that the amount of ammonium arrived in Northeast China is more than 50%, and some large factories have reached 70%, which makes the ammonium Market flat and compound around mid-October. Fertilizers and traders tend to turn to wait-and-see mentality and demand slows down. In addition, the supply of ammonium this year is slightly higher than last year, which leads to a larger supply than demand in the short term. In this year's slump in the terminal grain market, distributors hold a long-term wait-and-see mentality because of high compound fertilizer prices and profit reduction after buying out a small amount of stock in the early stage. These factors also give warning to compound fertilizer enterprises, and it is better to be cautious in purchasing raw materials.

To sum up, it is good that there is no sign of significant fluctuation of Monoammonium this year, which can not be separated from the support of raw materials for cost. Last year, the cost of Monoammonium was relatively low compared with this year, and the profit of Monoammonium was near 200 yuan, while this year's profit of Monoammonium was only tens to 100 yuan. Therefore, the price of Monoammonium should be stable, even if the latter hard demand is not clearly reflected and other factors such as the price of Monoammonium has a downward trend, the range should be small.