In recent days, the urea market continues to be deadlocked, and the quotations in Shandong and other mainstream areas are under pressure. For example, the urea mainstream ex-factory quotations in Shandong province are 2050-2090 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the low-end quotations continue to decline. Market feedback indicates that the low-end ex-factory prices have dropped to about 2000 yuan, but from the current domestic supply situation, the pressure is low. In recent years, the Indian market is also inviting tenders. This week, the port stock has been reduced by more than 140,000 tons. Urea enterprises in some regions are optimistic about the latter stage of the market and hold the cargo. Urea market has once again entered a stalemate stage. According to the current market situation, Li Rong has the following advantages:

Because of the great reduction of natural gas supply in most gas-head urea enterprises in order to keep people's livelihood warm last year, the price of urea rose sharply in the same period last year. Although this year has not entered the period of centralized heating, as early as the end of September, individual enterprises have entered the phase of shutdown due to such problems as gas limitation, although so far affected by limited gas. There are relatively few enterprises that have caused the shutdown, but most of them said that they have plans to stop production at the end of this month, and the supply of urea may be tight in the later period. India bid again this month. According to the international market, the total bidding volume is about 3.6 million tons. The lowest CIF price is slightly lower than the domestic port arrival price of 2100 yuan, although it is lower than that of the domestic port arrival price. The price of the last tender was low, but most industries said that they did not fall out of the previous psychological expectations, and the recent decline in port stock was faster. In addition to the demand of the Indian market in the later period, the possibility for enterprises to continue replenishing cargo to the port was relatively high. The routinization of environmental inspection restricted urea enterprises to start work in a relatively low water level as a whole. In recent years, some factories in Shandong and Lianghe were affected by fog and haze, and some factories have entered the stage of stopping production or limiting production again. Shanxi has also entered the stage of staggered peak and limiting production. From the above three points, even though the demand is general in November, the overall supply quantity is relatively low, and there is still a supply derivative due to natural gas limitation. Possibility of urea supply shortage in later stage.

Although urea is still good, the acceptance of downstream market is still limited. The main reason is that downstream hard demand is relatively low, distributors are not in a hurry to purchase, and farmers in mainstream fertilizer areas need to start at least until after next Spring Festival. Affected by environmental protection inspection, downstream industrial plywood factories and compound fertilizers start relatively. Low-level operation, from the recent urea enterprises learned that only a part of the current domestic urea enterprises are supported by rigid demand, the rest of the major traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude; on the other hand, because the price is higher, and the holding time is relatively long, traders believe that the overall trend of urea is not clear, there is still a certain deficit in the later period. The possibility of loss, not dare to rush to purchase, and even if there are production restrictions, but when the real fertilizer production enterprises may resume production for a period of time, the market may be out of stock, but should not be so tense.

Recently, the urea market is still at a standstill stage, and the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Although there is support from the price of urea such as Indian tender and limited supply of natural gas, the downstream purchasing still keeps a certain degree of caution. It is expected that after India announces the tender volume and specifies the limit of production, urea will be collected. Buying will increase in moderation.