Since the beginning of this month, the fertilizer market has been overflowing with smoke, and the "struggle" between the various roles in the winter storage war has never been interrupted. Speaking of winter storage, compound fertilizer is a difficult step. It was originally thought that with the success of the Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference, winter storage market sentiment will improve, but contrary to expectations, the stalemate has continued to this day, and there is no sign of improvement in the short term.

Recently, the news of limited gas parking, logistics shutdown and increasing dilution of storage has been widely spread in the circle of friends of farmers. Many market news indicates that if winter storage is no longer available, later distributors may face the embarrassing situation of "price soaring" and "no goods available". Therefore, the voice of "grabbing goods" in the winter storage market has become stronger and stronger, and some enterprises have responded immediately. However, the release of downstream demand has not been effectively triggered for the following reasons:

First, the market of raw materials is uncertain. The fluctuation of raw material market always affects the trend of winter storage price of compound fertilizer. At this stage, nitrogen and phosphorus. The market of potassium raw materials is weaker than before, especially the fluctuation of urea price. Up to now, the mainstream urea ex-factory price in Shandong Province has fallen by nearly 100 yuan from 1950 to 1980 yuan (ton price, the same below) compared with the level at the end of November. Although it rebounded due to favorable factors during the period, the range is narrower. As for the future market, the bears are in the majority. In addition, the demand for monoammonium and potassium chloride is light, and the price has also declined in varying degrees. The collective weakness of raw materials and uncertainties in the future will weaken the cost support of compound fertilizers, and the price may be adjusted in the future. Considering the risk factors, it is not the best time to pick up the goods at this time.

Secondly, the price of winter storage is weak and stable. As mentioned above, the cost support of compound fertilizer has indeed weakened, but the overall quotation for winter storage is relatively stable so far. The first reason is that the inventory of some enterprises'finished products is mostly produced by raw materials purchased at a high price in the earlier period, so the actual production cost does not fluctuate significantly. Based on profit margin, enterprises have to maintain the original price; the second reason is that some enterprises have passed in the earlier period. Higher provisional price is paid in advance for old customers. Once the price is adjusted at will, it will not only cause disputes among customers, but also damage the reputation of enterprises. As for the situation of partial decline, apart from the weak raw materials, most of the reason is that enterprises are taking orders for lower prices. Therefore, instead of taking risks at higher prices, they should wait for next spring to sell with the acquisition of more insurance.

Finally, demand release is constrained. The author believes that the main factor causing the downturn of winter storage market is the dull demand and the delay in releasing. The first reason is that some low-priced goods in the early stage have impacted the local market, leading to the current winter storage quotation has not reached the psychological expectations of the downstream. The second reason is that some areas have suffered serious disasters, the autumn grain yield has decreased dramatically, and the recent price of corn and rice has gradually declined, which the grassroots regret. Sales psychology is prominent, distributor funds can not be timely returned to cage; third, it is still far from fertilizer, and earlier this year's lunar spring festival, distributors have full time to operate after the year, and will not rush to stock up, therefore, in the case of serious demand constraints, as to how the winter storage quotation rises and falls, for the downstream has become less important.

To sum up, in the case of overall weak raw material market and less urgent downstream demand, the price of winter storage is high and stable, which directly shows that the present is not the best time for winter storage. However, in order to promote the market forward, some enterprises may issue new quotations and policies before the Spring Festival, or may trigger a wave of downstream purchasing activities.