In recent years, the light fertilizer market has recovered slightly, and there has been no major movement in the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium compound fertilizers. Due to the incidents of additional fertilizer depletion, urea in Lianghe of Shandong Province has increased slightly since last weekend. At present, the price of urea in Linyi of Shandong Province has risen from 1950-1960 yuan last Friday to 2020-2030 yuan today. In addition to the reasons of depletion, there are still some factories with low prices to be increased. Urea quotation rebounded slightly due to temporary reduction of production, but at present there is no obvious increase in actual market demand. Agricultural and industrial demand is still relatively light for the time being. Short-term procurement still needs to be cautious.

However, the price rebound is a good thing for urea, but monoammonium is not so lucky. It is known that the quotation of 55% powder monoammonium from a factory in Sichuan has been lowered to 2200 yuan again. There is still room for discussion. The actual output of 55% small factories in Yunnan is as low as 2100 yuan; that of 55% large factories in Hubei is near 2250 yuan; and that of 55% powder ammonium harbors in Bayuquan is from 2360-2370 yuan to 58% powder ammonium harbor. Ammonium ports raise 2500 yuan or slightly higher, and both prices have been lowered by about 50 yuan compared with the previous period.

It can be seen that the price of Monoammonium is not satisfactory. It has been heard that monoammonium can be guaranteed to the end of January in small factories in Hubei Province.

Entering December, the start-up rate of ammonium enterprises in Hubei and other places fell sharply under the influence of environmental protection pressure and inventory pressure, gradually from 6-70% of the high-end to about 50%. Some large factories in Hubei limited production, and most small factories were also affected by capital problems. The restart time was uncertain. Although the reduction of production brings good support to ammonium production, most enterprises have no pending orders to implement, new orders are poorly traded, and inventory pressure has not been significantly alleviated.

Recent raw phosphorus ore has been rising steadily. At the beginning of this month, Guizhou Dachang raised 50-80 yuan. It is reported that the ore price in Hubei has also increased 50-80 yuan. The high-end storage of 28-29% grade ore in Hubei has reached 600 yuan. The storage of 28% grade ore in Sichuan Dachang is about 480 yuan. It is known that the Limited mining period of Hubei phosphorus mine is about January, and the ore supply is short-term, but the author believes that the ore supply is only temporary. Tight, the overall supply is not as tight as the rumors in the market in recent years, and some enterprises purchase ores at relatively low prices for some reason. After the rebound of sulfur, there is no obvious support for the downstream demand. At present, grain sulfur in ports such as Yangtze River Port is about 1260 yuan. The domestic Puguang Wanzhou Port is stable at 1240 yuan this week, while the Dazhou plant area continues to decline to 1100 yuan. It shows that the overall situation of sulfur is still weak. The price of liquid ammonia has also fluctuated slightly due to the change of supply. At present, the storage price of liquid ammonia in Hubei is about 3150 yuan.

Originally expected demand to gradually pick up after mid-December, but today the ammonium market is still relatively light, the demand in Northeast China is light, most of the raw materials reserved by compound fertilizer enterprises can be produced to the end of January or even the end of February, and there is little willingness to replenish in the near future. Due to environmental pressures in Shandong and other places, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer has recovered slowly, the inventory sales of compound fertilizer products are not satisfactory, and the pre-purchase is not satisfactory. High-price raw materials consumption is slow, compound fertilizer enterprises are under great pressure, so they are not in a hurry to replenish their warehouses. Before the Spring Festival, in order to ensure normal production during the Spring Festival, some compound fertilizer enterprises may take some actions, but according to the current terminal market and the whole fertilizer market, the new purchase quantity of ammonium should be small.

In summary, although there are some positive factors in supply and raw materials, there are also some negative factors. In addition, the decisive demand has not improved significantly, and the price of ammonium has temporarily stopped falling, or there is still a risk of continuing to decline.