In mid-December, the weather in Northeast China has completely entered nine cold days. Although Harbin has not yet ushered in the first real snow, it has ushered in a real haze. At present, the winter storage market of compound fertilizers is like being in a fog. It can not find the export and direction. Especially recently, the price of raw materials has fallen back. Will the winter storage price of compound fertilizers take a big step?

First, in more than a month, urea prices fell sharply. While compound fertilizer enterprises have great hopes for winter storage in the Northeast market, urea prices have fallen sharply, completely destroying the compound fertilizer enterprises'confidence in the optimistic winter storage market in mid-December. At the end of October, the quotation of small granular urea in Shandong was about 2200-2250 yuan/ton, while in early December, the quotation of small granular urea in Shandong fell to 1930-1970 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 200 yuan/ton. Such a large drop made the confidence of winter storage in the lower reaches worse, and the progress of winter storage in Northeast and Central Plains delayed again. The progress of winter storage in Northeast and Central Plains was almost unchanged.

Secondly, the price of monoammonium phosphate has fallen considerably. This month, 55% of powdery ammonium monoammonium mainstream factory quoted near 2350 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price is lower, the actual low-end factory of large plants is as low as 2250 yuan/ton, the small plant turnover is more than 2200 yuan/ton, and part of the bottom can be guaranteed to the end of January, there are few enterprises to be issued. Recently, new orders turnover is light, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, some large factories begin to restrict production, some small factories due to environmental protection. During the shutdown of production, such as pressure, capital problems and weak demand, the time for resumption of production is uncertain. Affected by the weak demand, especially the poor purchasing ability of raw materials in compound fertilizer enterprises, the price of Monoammonium still has the risk of falling.

Thirdly, will the quotation of compound fertilizer change greatly? There are many rumors in the market: the price of urea and monoammonium has fallen so obviously, so is it possible that the price of winter storage of compound fertilizer will be greatly reduced? Looking carefully, the price of urea has fallen back for more than a month, and it has fallen by a large margin. However, we haven't seen a comprehensive drop in the price of compound fertilizers in recent years. Only the price of high nitrogen fertilizers in individual enterprises has fallen slightly. Why? The reasons are as follows: first, the pre-receipt orders of compound fertilizer enterprises are yet to be issued, at this time, it is disrespectful to adjust the quotation substantially to the pre-customers; second, the raw materials have a large increase and a large decline space, while the growth space of compound fertilizer is not large, and individual varieties are still sold on the cost-sticking line, especially the general compound fertilizer has a small reduction space; third, the off-season market demand, coupled with environmental impact, compound fertilizer enterprises In order to reduce production capacity to avoid the risk of frequent fluctuations in raw materials, it is not significant to adjust the quotation at this time.

Finally, in view of the current overall market, it is difficult for compound fertilizer to make big moves in the short term, and the quotation is still in a stable and weak adjustment. Later, we should wait and see the trend of raw material market and the start of market demand after New Year's Day.