_is absolutely good news for potassium fertilizer, the most direct benefit will be potassium sulfate. Everyone knows that potassium sulfate in 2018 is a difficult year, and the demand of industry and agriculture is not ideal. According to the preliminary statistics of Zhongfei Net, the consumption of potassium sulfate is at least 10% less than that of the previous year. Up to now, manufacturers generally have a great inventory pressure, and the price of potassium sulfate does not rise or fall in the upper and lower splints. Some manufacturers have already fallen into losses. Potassium sulphate has also exported nearly 10,000 tons this year under the high tariff in the earlier period, and the export volume of small packages is even more. So the tariff will be cancelled, even in the face of the possibility of price reduction in the international market, but the increment is already foreseeable. Ten thousand steps back, even if there is not much growth in price and profit, it will at least ease some inventory pressure, which is where the domestic market pressure is the greatest.

Although there are many non-tariff restrictions on the export of potassium chloride, in fact, the export volume of potassium chloride has been not too small. From this year to November, nearly 200,000 tons of potassium chloride have been exported. Even though the amount of potassium sulfate and compound fertilizers will not change greatly under various restrictions in the later period, if they can benefit directly, then potassium chloride will benefit indirectly. The greater the benefits of the former, potassium chloride will benefit indirectly. They can absolutely follow suit.

In this way, even the situation of late export can not be determined immediately, but the positive impact of the abolition of tariffs on the potassium fertilizer market is expected to soon appear. Since December, the decline of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate should be stopped soon, and the market will re-enter the wait-and-see period, waiting for the determination of export trend; and since the domestic spring market is not far off, such a wait-and-see is possible. It may force the downstream to be active, or even return potash prices to the upstream channel until there is a genuine upward trend in exports.

In fact, the abolition of compound fertilizer tariff is the most widely expected and advocated by the people in the field of chemical fertilizer. Because compound fertilizer is a high value-added commodity, the export of compound fertilizer will not only drive the export of products, but also the international export of technology, services and even Chinese brands. In turn, it will inevitably stimulate the development of domestic compound fertilizer industry and indirectly and reasonably drive the development of basic fertilizers of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which corresponds to the demand of agricultural development in China. However, now that tariffs have really been abolished, the majority of the industry's thinking is that "we have to go out before we can". Because of the high tariff and product quality, in fact, the export volume of compound fertilizer in China is not large, and the abolition of 100 yuan/ton tariff is not particularly big, so we must rationally look at the possibility and space of export. In the short run, at least, the new tariff will have a direct impact on it, but I'm afraid it won't have much direct impact. Compound fertilizer export is a good thing, but it has a long way to go, but we should also redouble our efforts!
Although the abolition of export tariffs on phosphate ores may not have a great impact on the overall pattern of phosphate ores exports, we all know that the so-called "marketing" is not a new thing. This time, how to use the past? Therefore, monoammonium and diammonium are likely to be supported by indirect advantages, which are good for diammonium, which has always wanted to rise but is difficult to rise, and indirectly will form certain advantages for compound fertilizers.

_Urea was originally zero tariff, but also export slump, this new tariff has been introduced in many industries to illustrate the problem. Indeed, "You have to go out!" Therefore, compound fertilizer or phosphate fertilizer, including potassium fertilizer, can not think that the big advantage is coming, there will be "rising, rising, rising".

For the time being, no matter whether the two-high-one-funded fertilizers should be zero tariff or not, and what major issues of sustainable development need not be discussed, the government standing at the top will certainly be more thoughtful than us. Now the situation is that the zero tariff policy has landed, so the only thing facing the fertilizer people is: to investigate the export market, as soon as possible to have a clearer judgment of the impact of tariffs; the domestic market is always fundamental, how to stimulate winter storage procurement, ensure spring farming fertilizer (to ensure their own sales and profit) is the key; if late export can drive prices. OK, but also don't be overheated again quickly "expansion", such as the Mannheim potassium sulphate industry, it should be noted that the supply side reform trend is still in force, the two high and one asset exports will eventually be restricted. If enterprises are smart, the dividends from zero tariff in the future should be focused on improving the core competitiveness of products, rather than on capacity and output.