Urea: Low start but low price fear to become "unable to support a fight"?
Time：2019-01-24 Read：585second
Whether traders weigh the risk of current prices or price game between manufacturers, the domestic urea market is still at a low ebb. Slow delivery, low turnover and low price are the difficult situation urea faces at present; the beginning of 2019 is not a boom, but a "grey" one; the long-term low start that manufacturers had expected could save the weak urea market, but the early nitrogen association was public. Bu's news that "gas supply for fertilizer production is expected to resume as early as late January" seems to shatter the industry's dream. However, urea enterprises are now operating at a low level due to environmental protection or gas restriction, but it has become the "inertia" of urea market development. Therefore, urea manufacturers'enthusiasm can not be lifted. Demand is light, leading to urea prices continue to fall. I am afraid the urea market has become a "can not afford a fight"?
Until the beginning of 2019, urea market did not turn around, and prices have been slowly falling in recent years. For example, the reference price of low-end manufacturer in Shanxi fell to 1730-1750 yuan/ton, wholesale in multi-market was also valuable, distributors had no choice but to wait and see more. Since entering the new year of 2019, the domestic urea market has maintained the trend of low and continued to decline, such as in some regions. The reference price of transacted urea in Shandong is about 1890-1900 yuan/ton, that in Anhui is about 1940-1960 yuan/ton, that in Guizhou is about 2210-2300 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan is about 2200-2350 yuan/ton, but the domestic urea market is "priced without market". The focus of attention in the field is where the price of urea will go next.
Advantages are "looming". It is well known that the best expectation of urea market is the low level of start-up. Gas-head urea enterprises in southwest or Inner Mongolia and other regions are limited by natural gas supply, production is limited or continue to stop production, and there is no plan for resumption of production in the first ten days of the year; environmental inspection and temporary environmental protection warning restrict some urea enterprises to stop, two reasons make urea enterprises can only maintain a low level of start-up. Work, normal good support manufacturers have a certain price confidence or bottom gas; finally, near the Spring Festival holidays, some downstream enterprises have adequate reserves of raw materials, and in view of transport constraints or outages, coupled with the frequency of local low prices, downstream eager to try, looking forward to picking up goods at the bottom, from time to time will do a proper amount of urea procurement.
Likon dominates the urea market. First of all, the supply of urea may increase in mid-late January, mainly due to the gradual re-production of some gas-head urea enterprises, and a few large urea plants have plans for re-production; secondly, near the Spring Festival, most enterprises will spare no effort to ensure the largest shipment of liquid ammonia and maintain a low inventory status, so the production focus of enterprises will shift to a certain extent. Production of urea and less liquid ammonia; Again, in the off-season of agricultural demand, large traders purchased urea in batches or in part with low willingness to purchase urea in order to reduce operational risk, plus the psychology of buying up and not buying down; Finally, the demand for urea in industry is limited, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of compound mast plant is about 35.57%, and considering the high price of urea in the early reserve, the sale of finished products Slow, therefore hesitate to purchase urea at present, Limited Purchasing volume, or some enterprises like compound fertilizers prefer to choose low-cost or even low-cost ammonium chloride and other small nitrogen fertilizers as alternative raw materials, and the cost investment is less risky.
Generally speaking, the urea market has a normal low start support, but there are still large variables to start. Demand is the key factor leading the change of urea market, and from the urea enterprise's shipping pressure, pre-festival shipping attitude, transportation constraints, light terminal demand and other factors, it is expected that the urea market will be in a low ebb in the short term, low start also "help". The whole urea market can only be delivered at a lower price.
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