When does the urea decline stop? How about the winter storage of compound fertilizer?
Time：2019-01-24 Read：563second
After New Year's Day, the new year began, but the excitement of celebrating the New Year did not bring a lively fertilizer market, the compound fertilizer market is still missing, the "haze" air is still diffuse, and the price of winter storage is vague and confusing. The price of raw materials of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium keeps falling. It is difficult for compound fertilizer enterprises to make good purchases. Lower reaches are afraid to prepare large quantities of fertilizer. This year's "winter storage" of compound fertilizer is really embarrassing.
The price of urea keeps falling. Since New Year's Day, the price of urea keeps falling. Now the mainstream urea factory quotation in Shandong province is 1830-1880 yuan (ton price, the same below). The urea receiving price in Linyi area is 1870-1880 yuan. Although some enterprises still insist on the arrival of Linyi with 1900 yuan, the actual transaction can be talked about. The market feedback says that the actual low-end turnover of some large factories is about 1820 yuan. To stabilize the market, but the downstream delivery situation is poor, there is a certain amount of room for discussion. Recently India sent out tender information again, but the number and price of tender is still uncertain. If we want to rescue the market, it is still slightly thin. In the short term, the price of urea is still running at a low level. Such a quotation makes the distributors of the previous period of low storage regret that urea has not yet reached the market trading period. After a loss, some distributors who took the goods earlier lost 100 yuan per ton. Once bitten by a snake, ten years of fear of well rope, in urea here, the greatly frustrated distributors also expressed unwillingness and dare not try compound fertilizer winter storage, planning to follow the market after the Spring Festival.
The urea price, as the trend indicator of the compound fertilizer market, has been declining all the way, while the phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, as the raw materials of the compound fertilizer, are also depressed. Most of the actual transactions of 55% ammonium monoammonium powder in Hubei have fallen below 2200 yuan/ton, and only 2100 yuan/ton at the individual low end. At the same time, the actual transaction quotation of 55% potassium sulfate powder in Mannheim process in Hebei has also fallen to about 2800 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of raw material prices also makes the pressure of shipment of compound fertilizer enterprises very great, and most enterprises are stagnating. After December, some enterprises tried to introduce preferential policies, which had more room to talk about than before, mostly about 50-100 yuan/ton. However, although the actual transaction quotation of compound fertilizers had fallen sharply, the downstream still remained unchanged. Now the ex-factory quotation of 45% sulfur-based general compound fertilizers has fallen back to about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. The downstream fertilizer preparation progress in Northeast China is only about 2-3% of the total in previous years, and the downstream is still in the downstream. Wait and see.
However, many people in the market still hold a glimmer of hope for the market after the spring festival. Comparing with the insufficient amount of fertilizer available downstream, the spring demand will start centrally, and then there will be a small climax in some areas. But for compound fertilizer enterprises, what they most hope to see is not a sharp rebound in urea, of course, they do not want to continue to fall. If urea can spend the Spring Festival smoothly, then compound fertilizer can be maintained. Normal shipment is the greatest gift, so most of the compound fertilizer enterprises have not beenxtavagant to ask whether prices can rise after the spring, and the amount of goods can be improved has been very satisfied.
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