God! Can urea still rise?
Time：2019-01-24 Read：562second
"Can urea still rise?" This is no longer the case for urea itself. Apart from ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate, these small nitrogen fertilizers are paying attention to the price trend of urea, and ammonium phosphate, potassium and compound fertilizers are also focusing on urea. Why? Actually, the situation is not good, there is no good can be fired, so we have to put "treasure" on urea.
From the cost point of view, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium do not have sufficient bottom gas, so the good or bad spring market depends on the degree of demand and supply capacity. At present, the Spring Festival is approaching the long vacation period, and the short-term demand is certainly not expected. The supply situation of phosphate fertilizer is normal here, the export situation is weakening, so the price has fallen; the supply of potassium chloride in potassium fertilizer has a tendency to worry about excess evolution from the lack of previous worries, and the pressure of potassium sulfate inventory is large and difficult to ease, so the price has also fallen.
_Urea market is also some self-care. Although the recent price decline has not been obvious, it is said that there are many manufacturers waiting to be issued. Nevertheless, an Indian tender has just been issued, but the price has not risen? There are new news that gas supply will resume and speed up again. Gas head manufacturers in southwest China will resume production one after another before the year, so pressure will continue to increase.
_Then after the Spring Festival, demand will be released, fertilizer sales will improve immediately, and prices can go up again? Although winter reserve fertilizer is very small, only about one third of spring demand, it is reasonable that spot demand in spring market should be very strong, but there are also variables. Firstly, it is an established fact that the prices of agricultural products will continue to be low in 2018, and the impact of Sino-US trade friction will continue. The fear of continuing low prices is still greater than the luck of rising prices. Under the double squeeze of continuing low prices at the grass-roots level and highlighting high prices in the upstream, dealers lack confidence in money and trade will weaken in 2018. This situation has long plagued the chemical weight market. Secondly, policy guidance and policy guidance will continue. Product diversification, counterfeit and inferior factors lead to uncertain demand structure, which may lead to a shortage of fertilizer market in spring. Thirdly, time is becoming more and more urgent, which is the same test for buying and selling.
Since short-term demand can not be expected, long-term demand is uncertain, and the supply has not been seriously affected, and may still be more, it is still too early to say that the fertilizer market will improve. If it doesn't work well, then we have to consider whether it will fall back again. Now there are less than two weeks to go before the Spring Festival holidays, unless there is a strong promotion, the significance of price reduction is not significant. It is expected that fertilizer prices will gradually stabilize. If the downstream demand releases early after the Spring Festival, the possibility of short-term bottom rebound of fertilizer prices will be great, but if demand is still not released, then fertilizer prices will continue to fall and a bottom-finding process will occur.
Now it seems that the latter is more likely. Now that we are bearish, we have to look back at the cost. Probably, there is still a theoretical space of about 50-100 yuan per ton for each variety, but these are from high-end or mainstream quotations, some manufacturers have actually lost money.
In conclusion, the author believes that the low price of chemical fertilizer will appear after the Spring Festival this spring, but it is unlikely that there will be a particularly big drop. Primary and intermediate traders should make some reserve at a low level before the Spring Festival and then replenish it at their discretion; upstream firms should offer or attract long-term customers at a low price according to their inventory and cost situation, and "speculation" after the festival is a necessary means to promote start-up, but they must wait for a good opportunity and control the rhythm.
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