The necessary premise of the post-festival bull market: urea boom!
Time：2019-02-02 Read：576second
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the fertilizer market has gradually calmed down. Unlike usual, the purchase and sale activities in some areas have already entered the holiday mode ahead of time. After the execution of the pre-order of enterprises, there have been few transactions in the new single. A series of manufactured fertilizers, such as compound fertilizer and water-soluble fertilizer, have been developing slowly since winter. At present, the pre-festival market is difficult to improve. However, what are the favorable support for the post-festival market that has received much attention?
Take water-soluble fertilizer as an example, the first prerequisite for the market to recover after the festival is the increase of urea prices, preferably "soaring". The so-called "surge" is to describe the rapid rise in prices to an unprecedented high, in the cost of raw materials increased to a certain extent, the price of water-soluble fertilizer is "logical" rise. If the price increase of urea after the festival can come true, other favorable factors are also crucial while driving the water-soluble fertilizer market in price.
First, seasonal demand continues. Generally speaking, winter is regarded as the peak season of water-soluble fertilizer demand. Compared with other times, water-soluble fertilizer consumption in some areas during this period is indeed higher. Take the northern region as an example, the winter greenhouse cash crops planting time is concentrated, the area is wide, the main fertilizer in the whole process is water-soluble fertilizer and other new fertilizers. Although the winter is coming to an end after the Spring Festival, this year's Lunar New Year is relatively early and the low temperature weather will continue. In addition to the fact that the winter temperature in northern China is generally higher than previous years, the phenomenon of "late spring cold" will inevitably occur, and the growth cycle of greenhouse crops will be prolonged. Therefore, there is still a certain demand for water-soluble fertilizer downstream.
Secondly, the demand for diversity is increasing. Accompanied by the adjustment of planting structure around the country, it has achieved initial results so far. In some areas, the planting area of field crops has been relatively reduced, the planting area of cash crops has increased, and the amount of new fertilizers needed has also been greatly increased. First, the price level of field crops such as corn and rice has been at a low level in recent years, the income of agricultural planting is generally poor, and the desire to adjust the planting structure at the grass-roots level has increased. Second, the disturbance of natural disasters in successive years has led to the increase of the planting area. Local grain production has been greatly reduced, and grass-roots income has also been reduced again. Therefore, the large-scale adjustment of planting structure has also led to the development of water-soluble fertilizer market.
Finally, policy needs are advocated. In order to vigorously develop water-saving agriculture, control the total amount of water used in agriculture, promote the implementation of Zero-growth action of fertilizer use and improve the efficiency of water and fertilizer resources utilization, the Ministry of Agriculture has formulated the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Integration of Water and Fertilizer (2016?2020). The goal and task of the program is "by 2020, the extension area of water and fertilizer integration technology will reach 150 million mu, and 80 million mu will be added. We will increase grain production by 45 billion jin, save 15 billion cubic meters of water, save 300,000 tons of fertilizer and increase efficiency by 50 billion yuan. The key work clearly points out that "research and development of water-soluble fertilizers, improve water-solubility, optimize fertilizer formulation and reduce production costs". Under the guidance of policy factors, water-soluble fertilizer has gradually come onto the stage.
In conclusion, once the urea market warms up after the Spring Festival, the overall fertilizer market will be greatly boosted. On the basis of cost support prices, the release of downstream demand will also effectively stimulate market sentiment.
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