Fifteen years have passed, and Feicheng is still looking forward to spring breeze. Speaking of the slow spring market, it has suffered a lot from fertilizer manufacturers, to say nitrogen fertilizer, urea, ammonium sulfate return in this period of time after the year there was a partial rise, although the fall of ammonium chloride has made many people compensate, but many people because of its high safety factor of the future market, and ammonium, diammonium, compound fertilizer in addition to the decline is a steady decline. How lonely!

In the face of such a situation, "mourning the family" is also very sad, good life envy at least can rise and fall urea. By the way, let me introduce myself first. The original name of "mournful home" is "mournful potash fertilizer".

According to China Fertilizer Network, at present, 62% of the mainstream price of white potassium in the port is 2450-2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the large order transaction refers to 2450 yuan; 60% of the mainstream price of Dahong granules in the port is 2500-2550 yuan, and the large order transaction refers to 2500-2520 yuan; 62% of the mainstream price of white potassium in border trade is 2180 yuan, and the large order transaction refers to 2150 yuan; and the spot stock price of 60% of domestic potassium market is about 2350-2370 yuan.

According to Zhongfei. com, Mannheim's 50% granules and 52% water-soluble powders are currently offered 3000-3050 yuan for mainstream manufacturer. Large orders in the low-end northern market are about 2850-2900 yuan, while those in the high-end southern market are still more than 3000 yuan and a few are over 3100 yuan. The spot price of 52% powders in the water-salt system falls to about 2900-2950 yuan, and the low-end of 50% powders is less than 2800 yuan. (* The price of retail orders for potassium sulfate in the agricultural market is generally about 100 yuan higher or more)

The above price has fallen by 20-50 yuan from a year ago. The key is that the sales are still not satisfactory. At present, horizontal and vertical comparison, maybe it is possible to fall back to about 50 yuan. First, although demand is rigid, time has been greatly reduced, leaving little room for buyers and sellers; secondly, the stock of potassium chloride port has reached about 2.5 million tons, exceeding the maximum value in 2018 and more than 2 million tons in the same period last year, while the large carry-over stock of potassium sulphate in 2018 is still difficult to digest, and the current industry start-up rate is also limited; thirdly, the cities have a limited reduction. There is a general shortage of funds in the field, and farmers have difficulty in choosing crops to grow. Finally, international potassium fertilizer prices remain stable for a long time and lack of cost support.

Of course, the "mournful family" will never wait to die. The "variables" of the future potassium fertilizer market lie in: if the import potassium decreases in March, such as less than 100,000 tons of border trade imports and less than 500,000 tons of port imports; if Qinghai potassium fertilizer resumption time is delayed as a whole due to mineral resource problems, or if the international market reappears, such as good demand in Brazil, India and Southeast Asia, or which giant happens again; Fruit export can rapidly open up the market... If these weak possibilities become reality, then potash prices are expected to stop falling and rebound.

Even from an objective and rational point of view, time is a double-edged sword. The buyer, like the seller, is already in a situation of "few days", and there may be extreme market in the latter period, that is, "the grass-roots level rises and the upper level falls, but the opportunities in the middle are out of stock". Potassium fertilizer prices are not expected to fall again in spring, so it is suggested that the middle and lower reaches should be ready to start moving in the near future.