In March, spring farming will be around the corner. After the festival, the fertilizer market is not satisfactory. A series of negative factors, such as sluggish downstream demand and weak raw material market, have led to a strong stalemate in the compound fertilizer market. Although the recent partial market started gradually, but mostly for inquiries, the actual transaction situation is not good, many market participants said that this spring compound fertilizer market may not have a great improvement, smooth shipment is the main trend.

At present, some enterprises have brewed brand-new quotation and preferential policies, which can also be said to be price reduction and bill-taking. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of 45% sulfur-based general fertilizers in China is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, which is about 100 yuan/ton lower than that before the festival, but it has not aroused too much interest in purchasing. As for the future price trend, weak stability is dominant and fluctuations are limited.

Firstly, raw materials. After the festival, the overall situation of raw materials declined, only urea fluctuated frequently. Since last weekend, along with better weather conditions, agricultural demand in the northern region has started, local urea prices have rebounded slightly. The mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Shandong Province is 1870-1910 yuan/ton, but the industrial demand is temporarily poor, urea market or continue to consolidate in the short term; the same fate of ammonium, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is not good, new single transaction is not prosperous, stop production, limit. There is little possibility of price rebound in the near future due to the unchanged production phenomenon and inventory pressure. The quantity of potassium chloride stocks in ports and frontier trade is too large and the demand is relatively small, and the price is under sustained downward pressure.

Secondly, the demand side. Market rumors in spring fertilizer demand gap is more, fear of shortage in the latter period, as far as the current situation is concerned, the phenomenon of shortage is completely absent, some factories inventory pressure is not reduced but increased. Market delivery has always been weak, the downstream surplus demand does exist, but the situation of large-scale shortage may not appear. First, the start-up time of the previous stage of winter storage is earlier, some distributors have purchased some low-cost goods in the early stage, and then they are replenishing one after another. Second, the price level of local small factories is lower, and it is easier to get grass-roots acceptance. Certain market shocks, therefore, it is not easy to draw a conclusion about how much downstream demand space there is in spring.

Finally, the supply side. As of this weekend, the overall start-up rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in China is only about 40%, which is not much higher than before, mainly due to insufficient demand and high inventory pressure. As a cliche topic of environmental protection, it has not received too much attention. After the government issued the second round of environmental protection supervision and "looking back" program in early January, environmental protection pressure in some areas has increased, but there is no "one size fits all" phenomenon, and the production situation can fully meet the normal market supply. Moreover, the inventory of most enterprises is still available and awaiting development. There are not many orders, so there is not enough reason to speculate on the price of "tight supply".

To sum up, the overall situation of the compound fertilizer market after the festival is not satisfactory. On the premise that the raw material market and supply and demand situation may change at any time, no matter at any stage of the market, cautious operation should be chosen.