Annual 3.15 has come. While people are paying attention to the news of "cracking down on counterfeits", urea prices continue to rise during the two sessions, but the quotation for compound fertilizers is difficult. As Xiao Editor mentioned in his earlier article, the quotation for the northeastern part of mixed fertilizers is downward. Should urea not be regarded as a trend indicator for the market of compound fertilizers, especially high nitrogen fertilizers? Why are these two fertilizers going against each other this spring?

Firstly, the real reason of urea price increase is explored. Prior to the two sessions, urea quotation has been showing a downward trend. On March 5, the mainstream quotation of small granular urea in Shandong Province was about 1870-1910 yuan/ton. Affected by the two sessions, a certain enterprise in Henan began to raise the quotation on March 6, followed by a few urea enterprises in Hebei, Anhui, Shandong and other places. Up to now, the quotation of small granular urea in Shandong Province has also risen. Mainstream ex-factory quotation of urea was 1910-1940 yuan. / ton, Shandong increased by about 50 yuan / ton, Hebei increased by about 100 yuan / ton. It can be seen that the main reason for the price increase was the environmental protection and production restriction during the two sessions, which was evident in Hebei. At the same time, the northeastern mixed fertilizer enterprises started production one after another, and purchased large-grain urea in large quantities, together with the international price of large-grain urea. As a result, large granular urea in Shanxi has climbed to about 1940 yuan per ton of manufactured urea, and the increase in Hebei is even greater to about 2040 yuan per ton. Therefore, urea enterprises start to recover slowly, local demand start-up is still the most important factor in price increase.

Secondly, there is no alternative to reducing the price of compound fertilizer in the early stage. In the article "Attention, the market of compound fertilizer in Northeast China has an earthquake", Xiaobian mentions that the price of compound fertilizer has fallen. Of course, before the urea price increase is implemented, the inventory pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises is very high. In order to ensure the market share in spring, some enterprises have to reduce prices and absorb bills. This week, the demand for compound fertilizer has improved slightly. In some parts of the Central Plains, there is even a short-term shortage of supply. With the decline of quotation, demand in Northeast China is gradually starting up. Urea prices in the South, especially in Sichuan, have increased significantly. The quotation of individual compound fertilizer enterprises has even risen tentatively. So it is helpless to say that the quotation of compound fertilizer in the early stage has gone down, but the price returns to rationality, accompanied by the start of the market, for the upstream and downstream of compound fertilizer It's still a little good.

Thirdly, if urea prices continue to rise until summer demand, compound fertilizer is mixed. So far, the price of urea has been rising for 10 days, while the price of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer is still not strong. The price of urea has stopped abruptly after the two sessions or continues to rise to the start of the summer fertilizer demand. At present, it is difficult to ascertain, but the two are both good and bad for compound fertilizer enterprises. What are the specific reasons? Please pay attention to the author's next article. Let's make a pass here and make a better study of the later situation during this period.

Finally, the effect of urea price trend as the market vane of compound fertilizer has been delayed more and more. Of course, this is closely related to the overcapacity of compound fertilizer enterprises and the intensification of competition. However, throughout the market of chemical fertilizer, urea still dominates the market of compound fertilizer in the first half of the year to a certain extent. We will wait and see.