After a short rest on March 10-12, several urea enterprises held a meeting in Beijing on March 13. On 14-17, urea manufacturers in Shandong, Lianghe, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanxi and Lianghu reached another high point. Following the last round of increase of 60-90 yuan/ton, the urea market has increased by 30-40 yuan/ton since March 14. A few people in the industry said last week that the urea price increase could last until April 10. It is worth mentioning that if this is true, it is more moderate. The Feiwang trolley was expected to last longer and increase more on March 20.
Let's first look at the reasons why Xiaoxie (a large factory in Shandong Province quoted 1910, completed train 1850, automobile 1880) rose quickly.

Firstly, the delayed fertilization of Winter Wheat in Central Plains coincides with the small peak of fertilizer preparation in spring in Northeast China. The combination of the two results in a short break in urea prices and a rapid rise in urea prices.

Second, during the two sessions, most urea manufacturers in Shanxi and a few in Shandong reduced their load, especially several urea enterprises met in Beijing to discuss the usual April overhaul. Most urea manufacturers may have more than half a month of overhaul period. The upcoming rise in natural gas prices has made the resumption of production time of the two gas-capped urea Enterprises in Inner Mongolia nearly a month later than expected, and has not yet reached the full date. Opening, the resumption time of some gas-head urea enterprises in Northwest and Northeast China will also be delayed by half a month or even one month, which also contributes to the rise of urea prices.

Thirdly, urea enterprises are waiting to be issued first, then increase prices, the main production area is below 1900 yuan/ton, Shanxi and Shaanxi province are still a little more than 1850 yuan/ton of ex-factory prices, orders higher than such prices are simply just needed. At present, the price increase lasts for a long time, indicating that the demand is much longer, just need to perform better than expected. At the same time, urea or re-increase.

Fourthly, the value-added tax will be slightly better from 10% to 9% on April 1.

Can the price increase really last until April 10?

It's difficult. Probabilistic situation lasts until March 20-25, and then it falls steadily. Small probability, that is, urea manufacturers are waiting for a lot of real cases, price increases can continue until April 10. The reasons are as follows:

Firstly, during the intermission period of fertilizer production in spring and summer, compound fertilizer enterprises will wait for a relatively low price to start taking raw material urea for fertilizer production in summer, and so will large and medium-sized distributors. It is known that the raw materials needed for spring fertilizer production in large and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises have been basically finalized, and there is still a moderate demand for urea in small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises. At present, plywood factories and power plants also look at it. Without the hope of concentrating on urea, the price of urea will rise, but the rising space will be limited. After all, the price of 2000-2020 yuan per ton in Linyi has exceeded the expectations of most professionals.

Secondly, exports are still not good and imports need attention. Before March 10, 50,000-60,000 tons of urea loaded from Iran will arrive at Zhenjiang Port of our country at some time, and its final destination needs attention; as of March 15, 2090 yuan/ton of urea in Guangxi will be wholesaled, and the price of urea imported will reach 256 US dollars/ton (CIF price). Considering the current guiding price of urea in Iran is 200-210 US dollars/ton, and the shipping cost is 15 US dollars/ton, the imported urea from embankments will impact the coast of our country. Urea prices in Haicheng City.

_Thirdly, the recovery of start-up rate should be the mainstream. The two sessions have ended on the 15th. Shandong and Shanxi urea enterprises will be fully opened. The gas-head urea enterprises have plans to resume production before and after April 1, and the price increase will be restrained in the long run.

Finally, the cost is unsupported. Most urea enterprises sell 200-300 yuan/ton above the cost line. As long as it is not particularly urgent, the downstream urea demand side should wait for the market to cool down slightly before considering taking delivery. For a 10,000 step back, how can the urea price increase continue until April 10 or even the end of April? By the mid-May peak season, the market gap can be really small and not operable. Space.

In short, if we consider taking goods, we are afraid that the price increase will be a smoke bomb. If we do not take goods, we are afraid that there will be no goods available from mid-April to mid-May. As for whether we really need urea urgently after taking goods, that is enough.