The urea price increase has lasted for more than a month since late February. Except for the first 20-50 yuan/ton drop in Shandong and other places from 10 to 13 March, the overall situation is very good. Especially since 21 March, the price has risen even more sharply, with an increase of more than 100 yuan/ton. Now the mainstream ex-factory quotation in Shandong has reached 2050-2080 yuan/ton. So, next Shandong price will break 2100? Will April continue to rise?

What is the reason for the big increase? Will it break 2100 yuan/ton?

Firstly, it just needs to be better than expected. Multi-site compound fertilizer enterprises have a slightly better effect in reducing prices and stimulating delivery, and the starting rate is slowly rising. Especially small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises have insufficient reserve of urea in the early stage. Recently, they have to accept the rising urea. According to individual compound fertilizer enterprises, at that time, 1960 yuan/ton of urea cargo out of the factory has not yet arrived. Now the urea ex-factory price has risen to 2050 yuan/ton, and they have to take it. It can be seen that urea enterprises have always been waiting for orders to be issued, there is no fear of price increases, Shandong break 2100 minutes.

______ March 21, Jiangsu Chemical Plant accident, production safety inspection is more frequent, industrial compound fertilizer enterprises, plywood enterprises, power plants are worried about future production or constraints, recently also properly improve the start-up rate, while not affected by safety inspection, for urea delivery situation is better, urea price increases naturally last longer than expected.

Third, the overall starting rate is slightly lower. After the end of the two sessions, Shanxi urea enterprises continue to produce staggered peaks. The temporary overhaul time of a factory in Jiangsu is longer than expected. A factory in Yunnan is also accidental overhaul for half a month. A factory in Qinghai has just opened up before or after March 24. A factory in Xinjiang has just released its products in the evening of March 28. A factory in Heilongjiang has undergone sudden overhaul on March 27 and its load has dropped by 70%. Therefore, the supply of goods on the market is relatively tight. Especially when the low price goods are not sent out, or in the course of transportation, or even the contract may not be broken, the urea can rise and then rise. How to close the market after that is not considered for the time being.

Fourthly, the game between firms becomes more and more intense. Urea enterprises continue to be waiting to issue, then increase prices, downstream buyers began to receive goods more cautiously in mid-March, but on April 1st VAT dropped from 10% to 9%, urea manufacturers temporarily controlled orders, temporary accidents in Jiangsu have also been rendered by the industry, at present, the price increase lasted for a long time, indicating that more to be issued, just need to perform better than expected, before implementation. Looking forward to hair at the same time, urea or rise again.

Can the price increase really last through April?

It's difficult. Perhaps it's time for a short period of time to reach the peak. Maybe around the Qingming Festival holiday, it may last until mid-April, and then it will have a significant decline. The reasons are as follows:

Firstly, during the intermission period of fertilizer production in spring and summer, the compound fertilizer enterprises will wait for a relatively low price to start taking raw material urea for fertilizer production in summer, and so will the large and medium-sized distributors; the plywood factories can not see the hope of centralized urea; after the heating period is over, the power plant will enter a flat period. Urea prices will rise, but the space for increase will be limited. After all, the price of Linyi 2120 yuan/ton has far exceeded the expectations of most professionals. After all, the urea gap in the urea wholesale links of Northeast and Northwest China is not big, and the retail links are still not moving. June is the peak period of fertilizer recovery in Northeast and Northwest China. In the short term, the whole urea market is somewhat unhealthy, the transportation of goods and high prices. Conduction failed to achieve all-round circulation.

Secondly, exports are still not good and imports need attention. Although a new round of urea procurement bidding in India will be announced on April 3, the bidding situation will be announced, but India's gap is estimated to be 500,000 tons. China's urea offshore price is over 290 US dollars per ton. The offshore price of urea in Egypt, the Middle East and other places is only 250-260 US dollars per ton. Considering the similar sea freight, China's urea is not competitive. The import of urea is fierce. A batch of 50,000 tons of Iranian large-grained urea will arrive at Zhenjiang Port in Jiangsu Province. A batch of Russian urea will be loaded and transported to Huangpu Port in Guangdong Province on time. Another batch of Iranian large-grained urea will be shipped to China in early April. These two batches of Iranian urea will basically be imported to the domestic market. Considering the offshore amount of Iranian urea 180-200 US dollars, the shipping cost will be 15-20 US The wholesale price of urea in Guangxi is more than 2200 yuan per ton, and the CIF price of imported urea is more than 272 US dollars. The profit of imported urea is abundant, so it is necessary to close embankments to import urea to impact the urea price of coastal cities in China.

_Thirdly, the recovery of start-up rate continues to be the mainstream. Apart from the maintenance of a factory in Hainan from 11-13 April to the end of the month and that of a factory in Inner Mongolia from 14 April, most urea factories start-up is a recovery trend. For example, a factory in Ningxia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia is scheduled to start in early April. The urea factories that have pre-maintenance will return to normal, and there are few enterprises that plan to repair.

Finally, the cost is unsupported. Most urea enterprises sell more than 300-400 yuan per ton above the cost line. As long as it is not particularly urgent, the downstream urea demanders should wait for the market to cool down a little and then consider taking delivery. For a 10,000 step back, how can the urea price increase continue until the end of April? By the mid-May peak season, the market gap will be really small and there is no room for operation.

In short, if the price rises for a long time, the grass-roots consumption will become less and less. A fall in April or even in May will be a rapid and surprising decline.