Recently, the most worrying thing in the fertilizer market is the star of nitrogen fertilizer?? Urea has risen, fallen, and risen again. Every move of urea affects the impetuous heart of the downstream. Especially the compound fertilizer industry is paying attention to the price trend of urea. The demand for high nitrogen fertilizer in the Central Plains region is about to start in the later period. Is there still a market to be expected in the later period?

First, recent fluctuations in urea prices. Before the Qingming Festival, urea prices continued to rise, mainly affected by the explosion of salt lakes in Jiangsu Province, urea enterprises started to decline, supply was tight, and industrial compound fertilizer enterprises began to purchase urea raw materials in the summer, so the quotation rose sharply. At that time, the quotation of small granular urea in Shandong had risen to about 2070 yuan/ton, but around the Qingming Festival, urea quotation came out. Now a small decline is mainly due to the large number of urea enterprises'orders and a slight increase in the start-up rate, but within a few days, urea quotations again entered an upward stage in mid-April. The reason is that the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has risen again and spring needs to enter a peak season; the demand of plywood enterprises has warmed up slightly; the price of liquid ammonia and ammonium chloride has risen too rapidly, and some urea enterprises have turned to liquid ammonia and started construction. The rate declined slightly. However, in less than a week, local urea quotation has fallen again, mainly due to the end of spring farming demand in Northeast China, coupled with the soaring price of liquid ammonia, urea conversion occurs from time to time. Therefore, in the short term, the mainstream urea quotation in Shandong Province is still hovering around 2060 yuan/ton, but Shanxi has 1940 yuan/ton of low price, so urea prices will still be in the short term. Continue small fluctuations up and down.

Secondly, what is the current fertilizer progress in summer? At present, the market demand in Northeast China has come to an end, but most of the compound fertilizer enterprises say that their sales have decreased by about 20%-30% compared with last year. This part of the demand is mostly filled by small factories and low-price fertilizers. Next, the market demand will be transferred to the Central Plains. The demand for corn fertilizer in Shandong, Lianghe, Jiangsu and Anhui will start at the end of May, while the basic market in some areas will be ready for fertilizer. It has been started, but only a sporadic pick-up, there is still a large market to be laid in the later period, but the willingness of distributors to prepare fertilizer again depends on the late quotation of compound fertilizer. At present, 40% chlorine (28-6-6) mainstream ex-factory quotation is about 2000-2100 yuan/ton, and this quotation has been more difficult for downstream distributors to accept.

Thirdly, how about the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises? With the centralized start-up of demand, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually risen. At present, the average start-up rate of most compound fertilizer enterprises has risen to about 55%. On the one hand, it is subject to the restrictions of environmental protection inspection, on the other hand, it is subject to the high price of raw materials, the inventory of finished products of compound fertilizer enterprises is not large, and on the other hand, due to the centralized start-up of pre-spring demand, the compound fertilizer goods are relatively warmer. Recently, the demand of high nitrogen fertilizer is coming to an end in Northeast China. There is still a lot of room for demand in the later period. If the price of nitrogen fertilizer urea continues to fluctuate at a high level until mid-May, the market of high nitrogen fertilizer in the later summer is still optimistic.

In conclusion, long-term lonely compound fertilizer market finally entered the peak season demand, but before summer fertilizer into the peak season, compound fertilizer should be cautiously optimistic, cautious operation, short-term no major change in factors.