In the last five days of May, the quotations of urea manufacturers in Shandong, Lianghe, Shanxi and Anhui increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. The quotations of urea manufacturers in Northeast, Southwest, Inner Mongolia and other places are still falling. Can urea prices rise in June? Let's take a look at the first one, two, three, four and five.

_. In January and June, the demand for urea base fertilizer or topdressing will appear. For example, Inner Mongolia in the three eastern provinces is traditionally the peak season of fertilizer preparation from May 20 to June 20. Wheat is harvested in the two rivers of Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui in early June, and summer maize will be cultivated after June 10-15. Before that, base fertilizer also has a certain urea gap.

2. Summer maize is dominated by high nitrogen fertilizer. Compound fertilizer enterprises still need urea, but the demand is slowly decreasing. By June, compound fertilizer enterprises will continue to produce for a short period of time, and continue to have a small demand for urea. In the last week of May, Linyi's receiving price has risen from 1910-1930 yuan/ton to 1950-1970 yuan/ton, which shows that this near-end sweeping production has better demand for urea and has certain support for urea price.

Third, export opportunities are increasing. Need to be low to dust before you can leap a thousand miles? That's roughly the case. Our country's off-shore guiding price of urea has dropped continuously, and the price of urea has risen in many places in the world (as shown below), which means that our country's urea export opportunities are getting bigger and bigger. Especially the price of 1650-1750 yuan per ton of low-end manufactured goods in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, taking into account the recent depreciation of RMB, is about 284 US dollars per ton offshore. If such low-end prices are reduced properly and there are solid international orders, the intermediaries can already carry out export operations.

Fourthly, in terms of imports, up to now, the real inflow of urea into China is limited. 43,000 tons of Iranian urea imported in April also seem to be waiting for transfer. Although the price of Guangdong port is as low as 2040-2060 yuan/ton, the impact of transport restrictions on wholesale urea prices in Guangdong and Guangzhou markets is still not great. In the last week of May, the price of Guangdong and Guangzhou rebounded by 20-30 yuan/ton, only Fujian Province. Ports are slightly affected by imported urea.

Fifth, the supply side seems less terrible. A large factory in Inner Mongolia and a large factory in Jiangsu stopped or half-loaded production for four or five days. A large factory in Henan, Hebei and Shaanxi produces urea for automobiles or zinc humic acid in an appropriate amount. Especially in the last week of May, the price of liquid ammonia rebounded. Some enterprises may focus on liquid ammonia slightly.

After counting these advantages, are we confident of the price increase in June? However, we should pay close attention to the fact that up to now, some urea factories or a small number of urea factories still have insufficient waiting orders, which can only last for a week or so. If the rainfall is not timely after the wheat harvest around June 10, the new urea monotony will still not keep up with it. The demand of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises is indeed decreasing, and the increase of the power plant's acceptance is partly feared. It is difficult to make up for the shortage of compound fertilizer enterprises receiving goods. Summer is the last season for digestion of urea, high nitrogen fertilizer, nitrogen and potassium topdressing, extrusion of granular ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride fertilizers. Our manufacturer's mentality is still somewhat delicate, looking forward to urea soaring, but at the same time, he is afraid that he will not run away until the end of demand after taking goods.

_Roughly speaking, the price of urea will rise to a certain extent in June. After all, the price of urea will fall sharply in May. There is still just demand in June, but it is not ruled out that the price of urea in early June may be weaker again.