As we all know, the price of urea manufacturer began to fall on July 13, especially in late July. As of July 23, the price of urea delivery in Linyi had dropped to about 1890 yuan/ton. The low-end turnover of urea manufacturer in Henan Province of Shandong Province had reached 1820 yuan/ton. Shanxi, Jiangsu and Anhui also fell one after another. A factory in Heilongjiang Province dropped another 70 yuan/ton. Multi-market welcome to move to the membership zone of Zhongfei.com. With the passage of time, the price of urea has fallen below 1800. What is the reason? Can you break 1750? Is it feasible to raise prices in August?

It is a foregone conclusion that the price of urea will fall below 1800, and it is possible to break 1750.

Firstly, the price drop after urea hype will be late but not absent. Urea prices should have started to decline in early July, but with India winning the bid for 1.69 million tons of urea and China eventually accounting for more than 600,000 tons, urea manufacturers began to issue ports in late June, that is, relatively sufficient orders to be issued. By mid-late July, the overall performance of domestic demand was poor, and low-cost exports from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia became. The only way out, Xinjiang can only export, to avoid these possible low-cost sources of export impact on the Central Plains, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, two lakes urea manufacturers to open the decline path, or even decline faster and faster, this is an inevitable operation.

Secondly, the performance of industrial and agricultural demand is worse than expected. In addition to the last wave of agricultural fertilizer topdressing around the country, urea prices have been slightly pulled by the wholesale and retail sectors, the overall summer agricultural demand for urea manufacturers'factory prices almost unsupported; in the industrial sector, the demand for urea in plywood plants and power plants has been poor under the economic downturn and environmental pressures. Considering the military parade on the Seventieth Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the appropriate early delivery of compound fertilizer enterprises has slightly boosted the price of urea, but the export price of urea is really low. Compound fertilizer enterprises have only received the goods on demand. Now they are procrastinating again and again, either replacing urea with ammonium chloride sulfate or waiting for the price of urea to drop. Low, even waiting for urea prices near the cost line. Nowadays, in the off-season of agricultural demand, industrial compound fertilizer enterprises wait for urea prices to fall sharply before production, and then rise together with urea in the autumn sales season (price increase is just a possibility).

Again, the supply has been on the high side. Although more than 600,000 tons of urea were exported at the beginning of July, the daily total domestic urea production has been 150,000 tons or even more than 155,000 tons. Rough statistics show that the monthly output in April-June increased by about 700,000 tons compared with the same period last year. This year, the price of urea is too high. The situation of replacing urea with ammonium chloride, ammonium sulfate, ammonium carbonate, potassium nitrate and other nitrogen fertilizers is more and more. The economic situation is poor. The demand of industrial power plants is slightly less than last year. The demand of plywood factories is much lower than last year. The fact that urea prices have not increased by more than 100 yuan since May is a good illustration of the situation that supply is slightly larger than demand.

_Simply speaking, in terms of demand, there is only one tail left in summer fertilizer demand. In theory, autumn fertilizer is the peak season of production until early August or even after mid-August, which does not support urea much. Moreover, at present, low-cost urea in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Shanxi has arrived in many markets; in terms of export, it also needs to wait for India's new cocoa. Can appear in mid-August tender. On the supply side, the probable rate is still high. The enterprises that have been repairing these days have stopped short. Soon, the daily production of urea will still run at 150,000 tons or even over 155,000 tons.

In a word, whether it is early production of autumn fertilizer or environmental protection that brings pressure to urea production, only when the price of urea has fallen sharply and the conditions for its rise are met, can the demand side get more goods appropriately, that is, in August, when India publishes its label, maybe the time for autumn fertilizer is a little pressing, maybe the price. Only when it is above the cost line can urea continue to rise in a larger range.