Recently, urea prices in Shandong and Lianghe began to rebound: now the main urea factory quotation in Shandong is 1860-1890 yuan (ton price, the same below), the compound fertilizer enterprise in Linyi area receives 1880-1900 yuan for urea, the main urea factory quotation in Hebei area is 1870-1900 yuan, and the main urea factory quotation in Henan area is 1820-1830 yuan. And the prices of some enterprises in Sichuan began to rise again. Some traders in the downstream market feel puzzled. The voice of urea price increase is becoming more and more intense. Some distributors who are temporarily on the lookout are also beginning to act foolishly. After communicating with the industry on this issue, the author learns that the price increase is only caused by export reimbursement orders, although the grass-roots agricultural market in Shandong Lianghe and other places still exists. There is demand, but the duration is not more than mid-August, and the demand is scattered, which can not form a certain support for urea price, and the price of urea in the later period is still likely to continue to decline.

Firstly, the relatively high load of urea market. In recent years, although some enterprises are still in the process of shutdown and production restriction, the overall start-up rate of large factories remains at a relatively high level, and some shutdown enterprises have resumed production. Gas-head enterprises in Xinjiang and other places are trying to avoid the risk of natural gas limitation or suspension of supply in winter. In recent years, they have increased their horsepower to make a living. According to the data of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the daily output of urea is still slightly lower than 160,000 tons. It is known that the number of export replenishment orders is more than 20,000 to 30,000 tons. According to its current output, the supply time is not more than a week, so this time. The price hike is just to stop the soup boiling.

Secondly, domestic market demand is weak. At present, the use of fertilizer in the local grass-roots market has ended. Even if there is still demand for fertilizer in some regions, the short-selling mentality of local traders is relatively high, and the operation of low or even zero inventory is basically maintained for sale. The current low-price collection policy of compound fertilizer enterprises has restrained the price increase of raw material fertilizer to a certain extent. The hollow urea market is relatively high, while the downstream demand is relatively small, and the number of circulating stocks in society is relatively large.

Finally, most urea in Xinjiang began to outflow in a proper amount. At present, there are only some sporadic demand in Xinjiang, and the supply focus of some enterprises in Xinjiang is gradually shifting to the outside market. Because of the relatively low cost, the reference quotation for urea factory out of Xinjiang is 1450-1500 yuan. If there are more orders, there is still some room for negotiation. According to the peak season demand time in Xinjiang, it is estimated that in early August, around Xinjiang. Internal urea will go to the southwest market in large quantities, and the price may still decline in the later period.

In summary, it is estimated that although some regions are driven by export demand and their quotations have increased slightly, prices are expected to decline further slightly as the low-price goods from Xinjiang and other places gradually pour into the market.