In recent discussions with factories and distributors, the trend of urea is pessimistic expectations; the overall industry of producers is at a high level, but they are unable to reverse the market. Agricultural merchants are cautious to avoid risks, some of them still have surplus stocks, and urea has not reached a low point for the time being. Plans; even some distributors predict that the urea market in the second half of the year will be "doomed" to be sad, thinking that urea prices in some traditional areas may be as low as about 1600 yuan (ton price, the same below). In fact, looking at the constraints of the National Day parade, environmental protection and safety inspection in the second half of the year, the domestic fertilizer market really has no resistance. Small.

At present, the urea market in our country is running weakly and the price is declining smoothly. Some low-price areas dominated by traditional concepts such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Xinjiang still have frequent occurrences of low-price. For example, although the mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Shanxi is about 1730-1750 yuan, according to traders, the transaction can be preferential and urea is sent out in Xinjiang. The factory quotation falls to about 1400-1450 yuan, and the trend of urea price decline in Inner Mongolia is also near at hand. Of course, this wave of urea decline is mainly due to off-season, urea enterprises "fire all open" like price reduction. Then the urea market trend next, we still need to see the following factors "wind and cloud change".

_Urea enterprises start high, although there is a downward trend, but there are still worries. It is known that urea enterprises have not been affected too much by environmental protection and safety inspection in turn. However, it is necessary to worry about the restrictions during the National Day military parade, when urea enterprises will be affected. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of urea enterprises is 62.99%, and there has been no significant decline. There are still hidden dangers to the smooth delivery of enterprises; however, the present liquid ammonia market is considerable, the overall price is high, and some of them are still rising. For example, the reference price of the main stream of liquid ammonia in Shandong is about 2950-3050 yuan, and the reference price of the main acceptance and delivery in Jiangsu is about 3000-3150 yuan. The same is true in Anhui market, only in Anhui province. The reference price of acceptance transaction in the northern region has risen to about 3000-3030 yuan, while in some regions it has risen another 50 yuan to 3150 yuan in cash remittance. This means that if the pressure of urea enterprises is greater in the later period, some enterprises may shift their production focus to liquid ammonia and "abandon the car to protect the commander".

_Domestic market demand is off-season, urea enterprises have obvious pressure to carry goods. First, the general end of agricultural demand, according to the large agricultural merchants and grass-roots dealers understand that the market basically stopped wholesale, occasional sporadic goods can be ignored; large agricultural merchants are not willing to purchase, wait-and-see attitude is more difficult for manufacturers in the off-season. Second, there is a certain demand support in industry, but under the environmental protection and safety inspection, some areas such as East and Southwest China's compound fertilizer and plywood plants are severely restricted, start-up is significantly reduced, urea demand is significantly reduced; third, it is known that the fertilizer receipts of compound fertilizer enterprises in autumn are not good, the price of explosive products is low, and production enthusiasm. Not high, raw material fertilizer procurement on demand, without centralized procurement, urea prices will be difficult to support.

_. The market of ammonium chloride has returned to calm, the dry ammonium market is slightly weak, the price is high and the goods are under pressure, and many markets can only report high and low. Considering the low cost input of compound fertilizer enterprises, compared with urea, some compound fertilizer enterprises will choose ammonium chloride instead of some urea.

Finally, if urea enterprises continue to work at a high level to cope with the off-season, they will inevitably lose both sides. Enterprises can only open low-priced suction sheets with full firepower. It is expected that under the imbalance between supply and demand, the urea market is still depressed and prices have room to fall.