Nitrogen fertilizer market performance is different, but also similar, urea overall market is weak, under the contradiction of light domestic demand and high start-up level, price is difficult to firm, but has to continue to decline, but the overall rate of decline tends to be flat, the factory's publicity and quotation is low-key, TRADERS'stock is low-key, wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the influence of urea market and the change of its own supply and demand, the domestic dry ammonium market is slightly weak, the mentality of the manufacturers is shaken, the operation becomes cautious, but wet ammonium is different, the market and trend are better than dry ammonium, the supply of goods in many places is tight, the price is high, and a small number of enterprises still have a small "mind" to explore. "The factory is also confident, the external performance of ammonium chloride is"high-profile"bid.

At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is running steadily at a high level. The supply of wet ammonium is slightly tight, the demand is good, the supply of dry ammonium is sufficient, but the demand performance is poor, and some enterprises have a slightly higher inventory. Although the bid price is high, they report a lower price, and some enterprises indicate that the price of ammonium chloride has the risk of falling back in order to enter the normal off-season operation price. Track: The current domestic wet ammonium mainstream ex-factory quotation is about 530-650 yuan/ton, dry ammonium mainstream ex-factory quotation is about 680-750 yuan/ton, the actual transaction still has some room for negotiation, or monotonous price. The key factor that can give the market greater confidence now is the adjustment of the start-up rate of the joint alkali enterprises. A certain ammonium chloride plant in North China is still in load-reducing production. Some ammonium chloride enterprises in Jiangsu Province are in load-reducing production and parking maintenance. Due to the impact of strict environmental protection inspection in Southwest China, some ammonium chloride enterprises have reduced their load by half and some factories have been subjected to load reduction. Forced parking, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of United alkali enterprises has dropped to 67.9%, so there are reasons for high-profile bidding in the ammonium chloride industry, but what other factors affect its trend?

The emerging negative factors have led factories and traders to become cautious. The first is the restriction of demand, the winter storage has not yet started, the Northeast market is still quiet and terminal wait-and-see is dominant. Even though some big factories try to offer price to the Northeast market, the terminal conflict is reasonable because of the high ex-factory price to 600-700 yuan/ton, and there is no price and regional advantage. The second is the poor harvest of compound fertilizer in autumn. Due to the weakness of other raw material fertilizers, the price of compound fertilizers declined, the difference of terminal income and the adjustment of planting structure also led to a certain impact on the overall demand of compound fertilizers. In addition, under the dual pressure of environmental protection and safety inspection, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises in local market was low, and the purchase of raw material fertilizers was carried out on demand. The market trend of urea is largely related to the "fate" of ammonium chloride. As mentioned above, when the price of urea falls, enterprises such as compound fertilizer will choose urea as raw material. Fourthly, some large ammonium chloride plants will continue to operate at a high level, especially the dry ammonium production line with a high load, which will lead to the enterprise's departure. It is difficult to reduce the pressure on goods, even if the stock is still increasing, the price will have the hidden danger of falling back.

The decrease of the overall start-up of the joint alkali enterprises is the biggest support of the enterprises, and the short-term profit is temporarily "backward". First, the overall industry start-up rate of United alkali enterprises continues to decline. For example, under the influence of "sports meeting" and "military parade" in some areas, some major ammonium chloride enterprises in Jiangsu, Anhui, Shaanxi and Henan will enter the off-season maintenance period or forced production restriction period from this month to next month, when the supply of ammonium chloride will be limited. The volume of goods will be reduced, and the construction in the later period will probably be maintained at the level of about 60%. Local tight goods, especially wet ammonium, will inevitably lead to strong prices of ammonium chloride. Second, the overall social stock of ammonium chloride enterprises is not large, according to market statistics or less than 500,000 tons, some of which are not in stock; and third, none. Whether it is overhaul or production restriction due to environmental protection and safety, the starting rate of some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises downstream is low, seemingly negative, but it is also a potential advantage, because they do not have stock of raw materials, and if construction starts later, demand may be released centrally. Fourthly, the support of export market to domestic market.

Generally speaking, in the game of mentality or operation means of factories and traders, ammonium chloride industry is inevitably "screwed up", but from the above factors, it is also "justified" to have a high-profile price of ammonium chloride or a small amount of local wet ammonium; only in the off-season, it is expected that the next step will follow. Ammonium chloride market continues to hold high prices, but in view of the limited demand for new orders, individual enterprises are likely to make an "exception" to the price, so prudent operation is wise.