Last week (August 5 - August 9) domestic demand continued to decline, urea market prices continued to decline. On August 12, China's urea wholesale price index (CNPI) was 1938.96 points, down 18.35 points, or 0.94% annually, up 0.52 points, or 0.03% year-on-year, and up 75.71 points, or 4.06%, in the bi-base period.

On August 12, the China Urea Retail Price Index (CNRI) was 2072.44 points, down 3.78 points, or 0.18%, compared with the previous year, up 21.52 points, or 1.05%, and up 167.48 points, or 8.79%, over the base period.

On August 12, China's Urea Export Price Index (CNEI) was 1874.17 points, up 9.55 points, or 0.51%, compared with the previous year, up 20.38 points, or 1.10%, and 15.17 points, or 0.82%, in the base period.

_Supply Situation

_Last week, some domestic urea reduction enterprises increased their load, and the start-up rate increased. The overall start-up rate of domestic urea enterprises rose to about 72%, among which the start-up rate of coal-head enterprises rose to about 71%, and that of gas-head enterprises remained at about 74%. In terms of raw materials, domestic coal market demand was inadequate last week, mining stocks increased, prices were weak and stable, and natural gas market prices fell slightly last week.

_Demand

In agriculture, domestic demand for agriculture has decreased. On the industrial side, environmental protection and typhoon weather affected the industry last week. Domestic compound fertilizer enterprises and rubber sheet enterprises started construction at a low level, and urea demand was weak. Internationally, market demand is weak.

International Market

_Last week, the Indian tender period ended, the international market oversupply, prices continued to fall. Among them, the black sea small particle urea FOB price cycle is down 6 US dollars/ton compared with the low and high-end prices, which is 249-251 US dollars/ton; the Baltic Sea small particle urea FOB low-end and high-end prices are down 10 US dollars/ton, which is 250-255 US dollars/ton; the Middle East small particle urea FOB cycle is down 5 US dollars/ton compared with the low and high-end prices. China's FOB price of small granular urea has fallen by $10 per ton from the low-end price and $8 per ton from the high-end price to $265-270 per ton.

_Domestic situation

Last week, urea prices in various regions of the country declined annually. Among them, the prices of Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Gansu and Xinjiang fell by 3.8-60.9 yuan/ton, while those of Fujian rose by 3.3 yuan/ton, while those of the rest of the region remained stable.

_Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic agricultural fertilizer has entered the end stage, and the demand has been reduced. In industry, environmental protection has maintained a high pressure situation. The new fertilizer list in autumn has basically ended, and the overall demand is weak. Compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly on the lookout, and the start-up rate is difficult to rise. On the export side, the international market is in excess of supply and demand, and prices are falling. It is difficult for domestic sources of goods to have export opportunities. In summary, it is expected that urea prices will keep a downward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the autumn fertilizer market sales.