The urea futures listing in the previous period triggered a heated discussion in the market. Whether it was initially used to speculate in the spot market or now the attention has declined, the urea spot market has experienced repeated changes of rise, fall, rise and fall. In summarizing the urea market, it is not difficult for people in the industry, especially at the grass-roots level, to find an unwritten rule which seems to be "whether urea wants to rise or fall, whether you accept it or not". At present, urea market prices have generally fallen, agricultural demand is off-season, the pace of storage is slow under the terminal wait-and-see attitude, and it has not yet started; industrial construction is low, procurement is still on demand, and the expected autumn fertilizer is not optimistic, so the industry has a pessimistic expectation of the overall trend of urea.

Firstly, it is difficult for the market to recover if the construction can not be started. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of urea enterprises has dropped to 59.82%. The daily output of urea is about 150,100 tons, which is still oversupply compared with the light demand. However, due to the recent decline in urea prices and the relatively high price of liquid ammonia, some enterprises have shifted their production focus to liquid ammonia, which has more or less eased the pressure of urea enterprises'shipment, but after all, nine cattle and a hair, and if the liquid ammonia market is weak, they will also consider the production weight from storage and transportation. The heart turns back to urea. As we enter September, some regions express that in order to guarantee the "70th Daqing" in September, the fertilizer and chemical enterprises in the relevant regions will be limited or stopped production, of course, urea enterprises are no exception. In addition, some enterprises in Henan have said that they will hold the "National Games" from September 8 to September 16, when some fertilizers or chemical enterprises will be restricted or stopped production. The production of industrial enterprises will also be limited, which means that in September urea industry will start to decline, there are expectations or signs of a revival in the market, but after all, this only involves a few areas, such as low-cost urea in Xinjiang as usual outbound, urea gathering port has also ended, and so on, so urea industry start-up rate is very difficult to have a long time. Low in time, the expected value of market recovery also needs to be watched.

Second, demand is weak and terminals are more cautious. In the off-season of agriculture, it can be said that the terminal is basically indifferent to fertilizers. First, some large agricultural merchants or grass-roots markets have more or less stockpiles, especially when urea prices have fallen. They think that they are more cautious about the off-season storage at the stage before the end, which forces factories to lower their prices step by step. In the near future, although there is a plan to reserve light, it is also on-demand, basically using the whole second half of the year for reserve. Industrial demand is also difficult to say, environmental inspections are carried out in turn, the starting rate of plywood factories is low; and some enterprises said that the 7th World Military Games will be held in Wuhan, Hubei Province, from October 18 to 27, 2019, and fertilizer enterprises said that production will stop around the beginning of September to respond to the call; the other eleventh military parade period, weekly. The production of some compound fertilizers or urea enterprises will also be affected.

Thirdly, the trend of ammonium chloride also affects urea to some extent. At present, the dry ammonium market is weak and weak, wet ammonium is still better than dry ammonium. The quotation of dry ammonium is firm and difficult, so it can only decline quietly. The slow decline of the market makes some compound fertilizer enterprises choose to use ammonium chloride instead of some urea in terms of cost.

_Generally speaking, it is not easy to find a good support for urea market from agriculture or industry, and urea itself can take the opportunity to speculate from any sensitive factor, that is, the phrase "urea wants to rise or fall, whether you accept it or not". From the analysis of supply and demand mentioned in the article, it is expected that urea enterprises will be in a downturn in the short term due to high start-up, weak demand, and substituted use. Local prices or wholesale market prices are also at risk of falling.