As expected, the lowest urea price this year is not July or August. Take Shandong as an example, after the urea mainstream ex-factory quotation rose from about 1770 yuan/ton to about 1800 yuan/ton on August 14, the price fell again on August 21. So far, the transaction price has fallen back to its original point, and the mainstream ex-factory quotation is only 1740-1760 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton. This round of urea price increase formally failed. Where exactly did the problem arise? What's the next time to pick up the goods?

On the one hand, this round of urea price increase is purely a test of urea manufacturers'pending orders under a little more, and the price increase is insufficient. The pending orders of the manufacturer include the reduction and increase of the delivery of compound fertilizer enterprises due to the transit of typhoon, the replenishment of warehouses at the harbor due to the delay of the date of the labeling, and the reduction of 1 700-1 720 yuan/ton (50 yuan/ton lower than the lowest price at the end of July last year) by agricultural distributors when they saw that the export factories in Shandong once fell to 1 700-1 720 yuan/ton. After the copy, pick up the goods. This kind of surge has certain effect. The chain reaction is that some distributors take more goods with the wind, but the poor demand is a failure. Since the end of June, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises has already been overdrawn. The psychology of agricultural distributors has overdrawn the quantity of goods received in September, and the export price has obviously gone away. Low (only US$250 offshore in Egypt and other places), very limited short-term export destinations, insufficient base for price increases, urea price increases are only a flash in the pan.

On the other hand, the supply is only slightly reduced, from a more serious surplus to a slight surplus. The daily output has just decreased to less than 150,000 tons, and the temporary reduction has not yet played a role. It is understood that the short-term maintenance of urea enterprises is slightly more, a factory in Henan has been half-loaded, a few factories in Shanxi are not fully loaded, from August 15, an enterprise in Inner Mongolia overhaul, 22, another enterprise in Inner Mongolia overhaul, 26, a business in Shaanxi will overhaul, to mid-September, if there is no interference from environmental protection, these factories will be fully opened, only Most factories in Shanxi will not reduce production until the military parade in September, so daily urea production will be very high at some time in September, which is likely to be the lowest urea price in the whole year of 2019, and the small probability will be in October. In short, by November, under the pressure of civil gas protection and strict supervision of coal enterprises, daily urea production will really fall, and prices will have a real driving force.

Said so many negative factors, then what happens when manufacturers in Inner Mongolia and other places stop collecting money at a low price? What are the reasons for the anxiety of urea manufacturers in Shandong and Southwest China? In particular, it can be explained that in the maintenance of four enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Ningxia, the normal mode of operation is to stabilize the price after low-cost receipt; low-cost urea in Inner Mongolia will arrive in Shandong and Southwest China in one to two weeks, and the competition is intensifying. Urea manufacturers in these areas naturally need to be on guard against these low-cost urea. After the closure of Inner Mongolia, the price increase in Shandong and other places will be short-lived. Of course, in view of the crude oil price and the upstream raw materials of urea have not yet appeared similar to the tragic situation in 2016, the price of urea manufacturers should not be too tragic.

From the current situation of urea market supply and demand, it seems that some distributors who have already taken the goods are in a hurry. Especially some high-priced goods are still on the way, and some new supplies with very low prices will soon arrive in the battlefield. There is no good way. The distributors with high-priced goods can only expect urea enterprises to restrict their production more during the military parade. Quantity, not downstream demand enterprises more limited production.

In short, urea operators in our industry are increasingly unable to refer to historical prices and to think routinely. They need to be judged in the light of the economic environment, new policies and environmental pressures. There will be new low prices in September, then either break down the cost line, stop production of some urea enterprises, or there will be new factors to stimulate demand. Perhaps the daily output of urea will fall down and the price of urea will rise, so it is necessary for our distributors to reserve in advance properly. Probably in mid-September, the rate will appear. This year's lowest price is a relatively good time to pick up goods.