1.

Wuzhong City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Wu Xuehua, Agricultural Management Manager of Grass-roots General Societies of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives

Market analysis: Maize and winter wheat are the main crops planted in the region. For the urea market in Ningxia, Wu Xuehua told reporters that urea manufacturers in Ningxia basically stopped production in 2018, so the supply of urea in 2019 was mainly from Inner Mongolia. It is understood that the urea plant in Ningxia has not resumed production at present. At present, the autumn fertilizer market is in its infancy, and the grass-roots shop has begun. Recently, urea prices have increased slightly, which has led to the rise of compound fertilizer prices. At present, the ex-factory price of urea in Ningxia is about 1700 yuan/ton, and that of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is between 2400 and 2500 yuan/ton.

_Future market forecast: Wuxuehua is not good at predicting the market situation of chemical fertilizer in the later period. But the current fertilizer season has passed, and the autumn fertilizer market will end. It can be said that the local fertilizer market is about to enter the off-season, so when the autumn fertilizer market is over, the fertilizer price may be reduced, which also means that the market will pay full attention to the off-season storage. For urea depletion, some distributors believe that the current urea price has reached the lowest stage in a year, coupled with the impetus of the manufacturers to hold an order meeting, some distributors began to reserve urea. However, some distributors believe that the current urea price has not reached the bottom, so currently holding a strong attitude of currency wait-and-see. It is expected that by November, regardless of fertilizer prices, distributors will make adequate reserves.

2,

_Urumqi City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Ma Wenjun, Jinsheng Kunlun Agricultural Products Co., Ltd.

Market analysis: The main fertilizer for winter wheat is diammonium phosphate. At present, planting in mountainous areas has begun, and other areas will begin around National Day. At present, the quotation of urea in Xinjiang is 1350-1400 yuan/ton, which is mainly used by traders as dilute storage. Many downstream distributors also think that the current price is relatively low and suitable for dilute storage. Therefore, some downstream distributors begin to pay for their products. As for diammonium phosphate, the arrival price has dropped from 2850 yuan/ton in the earlier period to 2700 yuan/ton at present, and even the settlement price will reach 2650 yuan/ton in the later period. As for compound fertilizer, the price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer has been relatively stable since July, and the current ex-factory price is 2 240 yuan/ton.

Future market forecast: For the future market of diammonium phosphate, Ma Wenjun said that it is expected that the price of diammonium phosphate will rebound in mid-September. But overall, the price of diammonium phosphate is at the lowest level since the spring of 2017. This also means that in the game between diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer in the spring of next year, diammonium phosphate has an advantage in price. It is expected that the consumption of diammonium phosphate in the spring of next year will increase compared with that in previous years, and it will also drive the consumption of potassium fertilizer. Increase. In addition, it is expected that by the end of September, some crops will be harvested to promote the return of dealer funds, by which time, the winter wheat market and the light storage market will be opened one after another.

Comments by Journalists

This week, the reporter interviewed the urea and compound fertilizer market in Northwest China. At present, the autumn market of winter wheat planting areas in Northwest China has started. However, it is noteworthy that in recent years, with the increasing demand for cattle feed in Ningxia, the planting area of local corn and Sudanese grass has increased. Because Sudanese grass planting is slightly earlier than winter wheat, the area of winter wheat planting in Sudan is decreasing year by year. The distributor told reporters that with the local corn harvesting from late August to early September, Sudanese grass planting has begun. However, the amount of fertilizer used for grass planting in Sudan is not large, so the fertilizer market in Ningxia is mainly concerned about autumn wheat fertilizer. However, the growing area of winter wheat is becoming smaller and smaller, and the market-oriented fertilizer sales in autumn are also much smaller than before.

In the interview, the reporter also learned that the change of the planter also promoted the change of the distributor's distribution mode. For example, the land circulation in Ningxia has been advancing smoothly in the past two years. Most of the land is contracted by large households. The distributors do not store the goods, but send them directly to large households according to their orders. A local distributor said that due to the different fertilizer needs of large farmers, distributors would provide recipe services for different users. It can be said that the change of planting subject also promotes the transformation of distributors to service providers to a certain extent.

In Xinjiang, some distributors have reported that in recent years, compound fertilizers have the potential to overwhelm diammonium phosphate, and the consumption of diammonium phosphate has been decreasing year by year in recent two years. However, this year, due to the low price of diammonium phosphate and the price advantage in the game with compound fertilizer, the attention of diammonium phosphate in Xinjiang is relatively high. In addition, compared with traditional fertilizers, the water-soluble fertilizer market in Xinjiang is expanding rapidly. According to local distributors, besides cash crops, drip irrigation is also rapidly popularizing in the field crop areas in Xinjiang. The distributor told reporters that after the use of water-soluble fertilizer in field crops, the yield and quality of crops have been greatly improved.