Due to the Saudi Arabian incident at the weekend, the domestic sulfur price began to rise tentatively at the beginning of the week. The light market atmosphere improved slightly, but there are still differences. The speculative mentality dominates. The sulfur in ports does not fall but rises. At present, the sulfur in ports such as the Yangtze River Port has risen back to 660 yuan (ton price, the same below). Some traders began to enter the market, believing that the incident brought a dawn to the sulfur market. As ammonium downstream of sulphur, some industries also have some hope for monoammonium. They believe that the price of sulphur will rise and monoammonium will stop falling gradually.

The author believes that the increase in sulfur price will not make ammonium available immediately, and the situation of sulfur is not as optimistic as expected. Since July, the sulphur storage has reached more than 2 million tons. As of the second week of September, the sulphur storage has reached 2.41 million tons. Recently, it has been heard that there is still a source of goods arriving at the port. In previous years, the maximum storage in the port is only about 1.7 million tons. This year, the storage in the port is too high. It should be difficult for the sulphur storage to decline rapidly in the short term. Although diammonium downstream of sulphur is getting better in recent years due to lower prices, bad news such as bad export is constantly coming out. In the short term, diammonium has no significant signs of warming up, and the demand for sulphur should not be improved. Similarly, the pressure of Monoammonium is high, and the demand for raw material sulfur should not be large for the time being.

Demand is the absolute principle. The primary factor affecting monoammonium is demand, while the other factors are secondary. This year, the fertilizer market is not very optimistic. The autumn compound fertilizer market is quietly passing away. This year, we have not heard how good the propaganda and sales of major compound fertilizer enterprises are and how large the volume of goods are. Everyone is feeling for stones in the bear market of chemical fertilizer. The distributors and farmers downstream of compound fertilizer are not optimistic about the market, although they are near. The period of compound fertilizer shipment has improved slightly, but it also belongs to the reason of reduced demand. In the near future, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer has picked up slightly, mainly due to the fact that enterprises are closing to the eleventh five year plan to speed up production, rather than due to the substantial increase in demand. For raw material monoammonium, some enterprises still have a certain amount of Monoammonium in their warehouses in some areas, and because of the limited storage capacity, some of the ammonium purchased in the earlier period has not yet all arrived at the factory. Some enterprises in some areas said that although the stock of raw materials is not much, there is no intention to replenish a large amount of ammonium at present, and purchasing on demand is the main one, so the decline in demand for monoammonium should be temporarily absent. Great improvement.

On the supply side, the overall start-up rate of Monoammonium is temporarily stable in the near future, but it has increased compared with the previous months. Although it is still at a low level, it can be seen from the year-round situation that even if the start-up rate is about 50%, the supply of Monoammonium is still more. Especially in this depressed market background, we have heard a few low-price rumors recently, which shows that the inventory pressure of each monoammonium enterprise is higher. Big, new orders are not ideal, resulting in a gradual backlog of inventory, resulting in ammonium enterprises have to compromise appropriately in exchange for some orders.

In summary, it can be seen that the rise of sulphur will not make ammonium rebound or stop falling temporarily. The main concern is demand and supply. It is expected that the situation of Monoammonium will not improve to a great extent in the short term.