In the "cold winter" of the fertilizer market, the fertilizer market is relatively calm in the recent stage, and even if there is any movement, there is no ammonium in the round for the time being. But don't be so pessimistic. When the market is light, you can think of something pleasant.

Let's make the following assumption: what are the necessary conditions for the price rise of Monoammonium?

Assumption 1: the demand for compound fertilizer is improved and the operating rate is picked up. Although the autumn fertilizer has been completed, the winter fertilizer storage market will start one after another. Assuming that the haze of the first three quarters is swept away by the compound fertilizer, the collection situation of winter fertilizer storage is ideal. Although the sales price is relatively low, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is increased, and the remaining finished product inventory of some compound fertilizer enterprises is gradually consumed, and the pressure is reduced. Assuming that the pressure of environmental protection and safety inspection is slightly reduced, and the sales are getting better, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises in Shandong and other places is gradually picking up, the consumption of their own raw material inventory is accelerating, the demand for raw material monoammonium is increasing, the new purchase intention is large, and the quantity of goods will be increased appropriately.

Assumption 2: the operating rate of Hubei monoammonium industry dropped, and some enterprises also had production and maintenance plans. Although the overall operating rate of Monoammonium and the operating rate of Monoammonium in Hubei, the main production area, have been around 50% this year, at a relatively low level, but in terms of the market this year, the supply of Monoammonium is still too much, resulting in overstocked inventory of enterprises, which is also one of the reasons for the low price of Monoammonium. Assuming that the operating rate of Hubei monoammonium enterprises in the main production area, especially the large factories in Hubei Province, declines, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in the country also enter the state of shutdown and maintenance, and even some enterprises change to produce other kinds of fertilizer, so that the supply of Monoammonium will also decrease with less demand, the inventory of Monoammonium will be consumed gradually, and the sales pressure will be reduced, and the price of Monoammonium will probably increase at that time.

Assumption 3: raw material market turns better and monoammonium cost rises. The main raw material causing the low cost of Monoammonium is sulfur. Assuming that the port stock of imported sulfur does not reach about 2.2 million tons, at least less than 1.7 million tons in the earlier period of previous years, and the consumption rate is accelerated, so the sulfur pressure is reduced, and the downstream demand is increased, the price gradually rises. If the price of liquid ammonia rises again, the mainstream factory in Hubei Province will be more than 3000 yuan. Although the impact is not significant, it will make some contribution to the increase of Monoammonium cost.

According to the historical data of China fertilizer network, the price of sulfur in the same period of last year is about 840 yuan / ton lower than the current price, and the cost of Monoammonium is about 378 yuan / ton lower than the same period of last year. In the same period of last year's history, the main factory quotation of 55% monoammonium powder in Hubei Province dropped by about 425 yuan / ton compared with the current price. It can be seen from the comparison between last year and this year that the shrinking degree of raw materials is smaller than that of Monoammonium price. According to the situation of previous years, it is predicted that the continuous decline of Monoammonium powder in November this year is more likely than a large number of downstream goods.