Around the middle of December, due to the gradual increase of air pollution index in all parts of the country, orange early warning of environmental protection covers most parts of the country. Affected by this, the number of chemical plants shut down and production limit increased in all parts of the country, and the delivery of urea enterprises as its upstream has also been greatly affected. Although the document indicates that the early warning of environmental protection will be lifted in all parts of Shandong Province after January 1, recently, environmental protection in some parts of Shandong Province Once again, it entered the orange early warning state, but the urea market slightly changed from the previous downturn. At present, the ex factory price of small urea particles in Shanxi Province has slightly increased to 1590 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex factory price of large urea particles is 1600-1620 yuan. Even some factories begin to control and accept orders and suspend collection at this stage. The ex factory price of large urea particles in Shandong Province has also been increased, and the current high-end price The price of urea has risen to about 1800 yuan. Considering that some agricultural traders in the lower reaches will purchase a certain amount of urea before this year, the price of urea is rising slightly. However, in view of the overall market situation, the price rise of urea may be a little worse.
First of all, there is an increase in the start-up of urea in the later stage. Although the gas head enterprises in Sichuan are currently in production suspension and production restriction, most of them plan to resume production around the middle of January. In addition, the gas head enterprises in Inner Mongolia will resume production, and the overall supply will increase. However, the coal head enterprises in Jiangsu, Xinjiang and Shanxi will resume production in that is, according to rough statistics, after the middle of January, the overall daily production of urea will reach about 130000 tons, and the overall production will be about 130000 tons Supply pressure increases, such a market for urea prices to a certain extent, showing a restraining effect.

Secondly, the market demand is relatively weak. Since the middle of December, although some chemical plants produce at night, the overall rigid demand of the industry has weakened. At this time, the agricultural market is temporarily on the sidelines. In addition, due to environmental protection problems, transportation is blocked, and the overall inventory of the plant is relatively high, while the overall average start-up in Hefei market is only about 40%. The bidding volume of mmtc in India is only 705000 tons, and that of China (including port transfer) is 290000 tons Tons, only 2-3 ships are expected to be domestic sources. At present, there is no obvious increase in the demand of each link. Considering that the supply will gradually increase in the later period, before the demand is obviously started, it is difficult for the urea price to rise.
Finally, the Spring Festival orders received in advance, the price may be further lower. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some urea enterprises began to collect the payment during the festival gradually, but at present, the downstream market occupies the relative initiative, and the supply and demand situation is difficult to change significantly before the festival. At that time, in order to ensure the smooth progress of collection, the price may further decline.
To sum up, some areas of the urea market have seen a small increase recently, but it is also a test for the downstream response. The actual demand of the market has not improved significantly. It is expected that the transaction price may decline slightly on the eve of the festival due to the increase of supply and the normal shipment during the festival. However, in order to ensure the smooth market after the festival, the price level will be relatively lower Low, even do not rule out the possibility of price rise after individual enterprise orders are full.