In recent years, the urea market as a whole fluctuates in a narrow range. With the development of the market demand in Northern Jiangsu, the prices in some regions are rising rapidly. For example, the prices of the mainstream urea factory in Shanxi Province have risen to 1600 yuan (ton price, the same below), the prices of the mainstream urea factory in Shaanxi Province have also risen to about 1630 yuan, and the prices in Inner Mongolia are below 1500 yuan. However, the prices in Shandong and other places are temporarily suspended There is no significant increase. At this stage, the factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shandong Province is 1650-1670 yuan, the factory quotation of mainstream urea in Linyi region is 1720-1730 yuan, the factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei Province is 1660-1680 yuan, and the factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan Province is 1660-1670 yuan. Due to the slight shortage of supply in Northern Jiangsu, the downstream market has increased in recent years. However, the southwest part of the market was yesterday The urea price of the enterprise began to fall, adding a strange picture to the urea market years ago. Urea rose and fell, so what other factors affect the price trend years ago.

First, the overall supply volume of urea market. In the near future, some urea enterprises in Southwest China plan to resume production. Some of them will be ready for production next Monday. Most of the other factories will be able to resume production before the 20th of this month, and the market supply pressure will remain in the later stage. Some gas enterprises in Inner Mongolia will resume production on the 20th of this month or next month. Those gas enterprises in Xinjiang will resume production next month, which has a relative impact on the market before this year It is relatively low, and some coal head enterprises in Northern Xinjiang are about to resume production in the near future; there is no clear time for resumption of production in the short term of production restriction in Shanxi region, or it will resume production in March; some urea enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui area plan to resume production in the near future; based on the production conditions of the above regions, if there is no emergency device temporary overhaul, the overall supply of urea will increase by the year before Plus, for its price is a negative impact.

Secondly, the number of enterprises to be issued. In recent years, there are many orders waiting to be issued by some large factories in Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi, and even some of them have been placed after the Spring Festival. For this part of enterprises, it is not necessary to reduce the price in the recent quotation, and there is no spot supply. It is expected that this part of enterprises will at least hold the price after the Spring Festival, but there are still some enterprises with relatively few orders waiting to be issued at this stage There is still room for negotiation.

Finally, recent needs. Because the Spring Festival is earlier than the previous years, some traders are short in the early stage and have less inventory in hand. They plan to purchase more before the year, but the acceptance of high price goods is relatively low. With the gradual rise of price, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement becomes low. However, it can be determined that as long as the price rise is not too outrageous, the overall rigid demand still exists The sub enterprises are also based on this mentality of the current market, and the price also maintains a certain high-level operation.
To sum up, according to the above overall factor analysis, it is expected that the overall price will fluctuate in a narrow range up and down before the Spring Festival this year, but it is difficult to have an obvious rise and fall. If you are not in a hurry to pick up the goods, you can wait for a while.