In a few days before the lunar new year, the urea price continues to maintain a high level. The high-end ex factory price of large particles of some factories in Shandong has been shouted to about 1900 yuan (ton price, the same below). The downstream industrial demand has moved. Although the construction of some factories in the Southwest has recovered and the prices in some regions have declined slightly, the urea price in China remains relatively high. On the contrary, the price of diammonium is always running at a low level. Although several large enterprises have introduced the settlement price in the first stage recently, there are still low-end prices in the market. Why did urea keep rising and diammonium keep falling years ago?

First, agricultural demand has not yet arrived. The main reason for the rise of urea before the year is the release of industrial demand, which makes some enterprises have received the orders to be issued during the Spring Festival, and the price is naturally high and stable. However, for diammonium, there is little industrial demand, and the most important is the agricultural market. However, this year's farmers' grain sales situation is not optimistic, and the funds for fertilizer preparation are insufficient. In addition, after the Spring Festival this year, the operation time is abundant. The enthusiasm of the downstream dealers for winter storage is not high, and the market for winter storage lags behind the most in previous years. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the arrival of diammonium in Northeast China before the year was only about 30-40%. Although the future market demand still exists, in recent years, the situation of "price rise in the off-season and price fall in the peak season" which often occurs in the winter storage market has made the downstream dealers as frightened as birds of a feather. Now the price of diammonium is still in a declining state. Most of the dealers at the grass-roots level plan to stock up after the year to avoid risks, and big traders dare not deliver more goods, so the price of diammonium will not rise naturally.

Second, construction started to decline slightly, but exports were still weak and supply continued to be surplus. Since January, some plants have been shut down for maintenance, and the operation of diammonium industry has declined slightly. In addition, the market recently announced that after the Guiyang conference, large domestic plants will reduce production by 600000 tons in the first quarter. But how much support can such a reduction have for the current winter storage market? Look at the low price frequent market now. In the international market, the prices of Europe and America have risen, but the prices of India and Pakistan, as the main market of China, have not risen. The inventory of India is still at a high level. Secondly, the CIF price is still at a low level of $292-296, while Chinese manufacturers hope to keep the FOB price above $290, of which the difference is nearly $20. China's export dilemma still cannot be solved. Exports are weak, production reduction is still not bringing confidence to the domestic market, and the situation of oversupply has not been changed.
Finally, sulfur rose slightly and cost support was still insufficient. Recently, the price of sulfur has risen slightly. It is said that the price of granular sulfur in Yangtze River port has risen to about 600 yuan, but there is no news of transaction. Even if this price has been confirmed, how much will it affect the production cost of diammonium? On the one hand, most of the diammonium manufacturers purchase according to the quarterly contract. According to the understanding of CFN, the factory price of sulfur is about 600 yuan at present; on the other hand, the stock of sulfur in the port has not declined, and the international market has not improved greatly, and there is still a risk of decline in the later period.

To sum up, today's diammonium market is caused by a variety of reasons. In addition to some extreme cases, I can only wait for the start of fertilizer demand in spring to break the situation. I will continue to pay attention to market changes after the end of the year.