At present, the domestic fertilizer market is facing the same dilemma, obviously affected by the epidemic situation. Although the output of various fertilizer varieties has decreased, but the delivery has not improved significantly. After the 15th day of the first month, the total fertilizer demand in many regions is about to start, and some urea production enterprises have made a small price inquiry, but the actual delivery has not been as smooth as the upward quotation. At present, the biggest problem faced by urea enterprises is limited transportation, especially the fact that there is almost no transaction in the external issuance of orders, and the postponement of the resumption of work of downstream fertilizer enterprises. However, in the early stage when the terminal spring fertilizer demand is ready, the local urea supply is blocked in the middle of the road.

Small rise to exaggerate the market atmosphere, before the start of demand began to pave the way, and how the next urea market will develop these negative and positive factors can not be ignored.

First of all, the start-up level of urea enterprises is low and the daily output is not high. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the daily output of urea is about 126000 tons, which is the support of the current market, and the further reduction should be limited. The first is that some urea enterprises in Jiangsu may resume production in the near future; the second is that from the perspective of enterprise cost, it is not the best policy for urea enterprises to reduce the start-up, and the spring market is "imminent", so it is necessary to reserve the inventory source; the third is that liquid ammonia, which is closely related to urea production, also affects the start-up of urea enterprises. During the Spring Festival, the transportation of liquid ammonia is always limited, and now in the epidemic situation Under the influence of, due to the deepening of transportation constraints, especially the limited storage capacity of all plants, most enterprises shift their production focus to methanol or urea, and some enterprises stop their liquid ammonia plants. In other words, the extent of urea re conversion to liquid ammonia is limited. According to the above situation, the start-up of urea enterprises should be adjusted up and down at this level.

Secondly, the demand is not far away, and the amount of fertilizer in the downstream is limited, so many sources of goods are intercepted in the middle. At this time, it is obvious that the demand progress of the terminal market will be forced to be delayed, but after all, the 15th day of the first month has passed, and the terminal has not yet prepared fertilizer before the Spring Festival, and the amount of fertilizer prepared by the grass-roots dealers is not much, so the large-scale agricultural material merchants have been using and mining at any time in recent years, and the operation is also cautious before the Spring Festival in 2020. Currently, the supply of large-scale agricultural material merchants is limited. In order to protect the spring cultivation and transportation, the large-scale agricultural material corporations have begun to mining around The source of purchase and distribution of goods to the grass-roots agricultural material stores, but due to the transportation problems, the progress of distribution is hindered, and the progress is slow. The overall industrial operation rate of industrial compound fertilizer is low, and under the situation of nationwide common anti epidemic, the resumption time of some compound fertilizer enterprises has to be postponed again, the purchase progress of raw material fertilizer slows down, and the demand decreases. The same is true of plywood factories.
To some extent, the inventory and low price of ammonium chloride once again affect the market of urea. At present, the market of ammonium chloride is weak, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is large, and also due to the limited transportation, all factories are forced by various pressures, the price continues to be low and there is a risk of falling, the negative impact on urea is more and more obvious, the real economy is seriously affected, in order to minimize the cost of compound fertilizer or mixed fertilizer enterprises, they may prefer to purchase low-cost ammonium chloride instead of some urea 。

 in the end, the supply and demand of urea market are both low The rising atmosphere is inevitable. It is expected that the urea market will develop steadily in the short term, and continue to pave the way for the atmosphere. The urea market will also recover after the recovery of transportation and the expansion of demand.