After ten days of falling back, up to now, the urea price has fallen by 80-160 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of a large factory in Shanxi has fallen to 1620 yuan / ton, especially in Inner Mongolia. In the early morning of March 25, the ex factory price of a large factory in Inner Mongolia fell to 1510 yuan / ton. This price is the lower level before the Spring Festival. Is urine the rhythm of bottoming rebound?

Looking at the demand situation again, it is the first round of spring demand and the second round of purchase intermission, and most dealers with goods are not ready to take them; the international and domestic economic environment is very poor, and the demand of power plants and plywood factories still cannot play a pulling role; compound fertilizer enterprises will not take the goods as intensively as they did when they just returned to work. Linyi's delivery price for urea is 1860-1870 yuan / ton from the high end of the previous period It dropped to the current 1760-1770 yuan / ton; the international epidemic was serious, the new procurement bidding issued by India on 22 was blocked, the 14 day isolation cost was large, some ports in India were closed to March 31, and India was closed for 21 days since 0:00 on March 25, etc., and there were also rumors that the bidding might be postponed.

 although not so strong: the demand in spring has not been completely ended, the early urea The demand of plywood factories will be slightly improved if the quantity of goods received is a little larger; the operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises has reached more than 70%; especially for the procurement bidding in India on the evening of March 21, China's urea price will be able to win the bid if it falls again, for example, Shandong will fall another 50 yuan, for example, the current 1510 yuan in Inner Mongolia will be close to the export level.

although there is a lot of supply, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is not large for the time being: once the low price of urea manufacturers is to be issued to a certain extent, the situation of very large supply can be ignored for a short time. Once the local low price is to be issued to a certain extent, it will lead to an increase. For example, Shanxi manufacturers have increased 10-20 yuan / ton slightly, which is more than that of Shandong. If the price rebounds from the local to a slightly larger range, the Ministry will Sub dealers are afraid that they will not be able to get the lower price of the stock; in addition, before the end of April, cars in some regions may resume high-speed charging. If there is a sufficiently low price in the near future, if it can arrive in time, it is good for buyers and urea manufacturers.

in view of the sharp drop in international crude oil price, the demand for industrial power plants and On the other hand, the urea market will not be out of stock for a long time. It is expected that the next urea price will not rebound from the bottom, but will increase in a stalemate way during the slow decline. If the increase can exceed 50-80 yuan, it should be a blessing, and there is no need to expect too much for the time being.