This week, the urea bidding in India began. The insiders wanted to use this bidding to boost the weak domestic market, but unexpectedly, the price of urea fell continuously in this week's time: the main price of urea in Shandong Province is 1700-1730 yuan (ton price, the same below), the price of urea received by Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises is 1730-1750 yuan; the main price of urea in Hebei Province is 1730-1750 yuan The price is 1720-1750 yuan, and the main factory quotation of urea in Henan is 1690-1720 yuan. Although some enterprises intend to hold a firm price and wait for the further clarification of urea bidding in India, the daily output of domestic urea market at this stage has exceeded 160000 tons. Under such a large supply background, a large part of favorable factors have been killed. In addition, the news of Indian standard is pending, and the domestic market demand is relatively small, This week, the domestic price fell continuously, and there is still the possibility of further decline in the later price, mainly reflected in the following points.

First, uncertainty: whether India will be able to bid as scheduled in the near future. According to the international news, according to the practice of previous years, the number of bids in India may exceed one million tons, but this bid is affected by the epidemic situation. In addition, since the 25th, India has been "closed" for 21 days, whether the subsequent bids can be sustained, even if the bids are carried out as scheduled, the number of bids, and whether no additional variables can affect the shipping, most of the uncertainty factors give the weak domestic market The market has added a pessimistic expectation. However, if the printing is carried out as scheduled, some people will still participate in the current situation in the industry. At that time, in order to avoid the potential risks in the later stage, the time of port gathering may be shortened to the greatest extent. At that time, the existing domestic supply will be reduced, and the price will also show signs of stabilizing.

Secondly, the state of oversupply is hard to cancel in the short term. Judging from the recent production status of urea, except for the temporary maintenance of some units, the overall supply of urea will not be reduced in the near future, and there are plans to continue to increase the number of units in Xinjiang, Shanxi and other places, and the daily output of urea in the near future will remain above 160000 tons; while in the near future, although there is still a certain amount of agricultural demand in some areas, the local large traders There is still a certain amount to be developed, because the large demand in Northeast and other places is only a quarter, and the demand in the late topdressing market is relatively small; although the late summer market of compound fertilizer is dominated by high nitrogen fertilizer, on the one hand, the enterprise still has raw material inventory, and there is no urgent demand in the short term; on the other hand, urea has shown signs of decline in the near future, and the compound fertilizer enterprise is still in a wait-and-see state Therefore, there is not a large number of buying signs in the near future, so in terms of domestic supply and demand recently, domestic urea pressure is still large.

To sum up, the domestic demand is relatively weak at this stage, while India's bidding is pending, with large variable factors, and the domestic downstream is mainly waiting. In the near future, the overall profits of enterprises are relatively considerable. Under the background of oversupply, the domestic urea price is likely to continue to decline.