At the beginning of June, the much anticipated summer fertilizer market showed signs of closure. At the replenishment stage, the compound fertilizer market, which was not warm and hot at the beginning of June, was more "bleak", and the remaining demand in the downstream was very limited. After the order waiting to be issued in the early stage was digested, the new order replenishment was slow, and the start rate had to be reduced to control the inventory. In a twinkling, the market entered a period of intermission between summer and autumn, and the off-season atmosphere followed. It is worth mentioning that although the summer fertilizer market ended in a cursory manner, there are different opinions on the recent news about the start of autumn fertilizer market. In view of the unpredictable raw material market, the short-term market may be stagnant.

At present, urea is one of the most popular raw materials, which is mainly reflected in the slow rise to the sustained price hike, and there are still factories that continue to rise. In summer, the demand for Topdressing of field crops in the north of China started, coupled with the increase of maintenance enterprises and the reduction of supply, which to some extent promoted the rise of urea price in this round. However, after all, the rigid demand can not be maintained for a long time, and the subsequent rise and fall of urea are still in doubt. The change of urea market affects the trend of fertilizer market, which can be described as "pulling a hair and moving the whole body". So how much will fertilizer be affected by urea in the future autumn? How to start?

Firstly, the cost of phosphate fertilizer is more important. In autumn, most areas are mainly planted with winter wheat, and the demand for compound fertilizer is high in phosphorus products. Naturally, the market of phosphorus fertilizer has become the main factor affecting the trend of autumn fertilizer, which has far exceeded that of urea. By the end of last week, the prices of enterprises in Hubei Province, the main production area of Monoammonium, were mainly upward, but the transactions were rare, mainly due to the fact that the preliminary waiting for implementation has not been completed, even though some of the compound fertilizer enterprises intend to purchase, they are still not interested in the higher price; the price of diammonium is relatively stable, and 64% of Hubei's main products leave the factory at 2100-220 yuan / ton, and it is expected that agricultural demand will not be excessive in the short term, as for when the market will be It will also depend on the start-up of the autumn fertilizer market.
Secondly, autumn demand is more critical. After the end of the market in spring and summer, the main problem reflected by the compound fertilizer market is still the lack of seasonal demand. If the raw material market in the peak season is weak, but the downstream demand is strong, then the price of compound fertilizer may not decline significantly. For the time being, the demand in autumn is mainly stable. The first reason is that the local wheat harvest situation is acceptable, the per mu yield reaches the previous year's new high, and the price level is also at a normal level, which to some extent increases the confidence of the downstream for the next ploughing. The second reason is that the fertilizer market fluctuates greatly in the first half of the year due to various irresistible factors. With the recovery of production and transportation, the market is gradually stable, The demand for compound fertilizer in autumn may be as usual.

Finally, the market competition is more intense. The market of compound fertilizer is becoming more and more desolate. At the beginning of the season or in the traditional peak season, the delivery and investment situation is often tepid. Upstream enterprises and downstream distributors all say that the sales volume is declining. The first reason is that the supply of large demand, especially the abnormal expansion of compound fertilizer production capacity, leads to the sudden increase of supply quantity and the decrease of market share of single enterprise. The second reason is that the market is seriously ill and fake and inferior products are produced Repeated prohibitions, uneven prices, blind downstream selection of fertilizer, traditional brands suffer a lot. In the face of the increasingly fierce market competition, the enterprise also seems to be a little overwhelmed, so it has to reduce the profit space and trade volume for price.