After the release of the printing standard, the industry's nervous tension is slightly relaxed. However, in the case that the final bid winning quantity and price have not been determined, this heart is still hanging. I thought that the printing standard could push up the domestic urea price. The price of urea has increased, but it has not risen as expected, but only slightly. Even some parts, such as Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, have made up for the drop to a certain extent Accompanied by the situation is the price of grass-roots no market or more upside down, traders carefully purchase, and more wait-and-see.

In this week's mainstream domestic urea market, the price rose by about 20-30 yuan / ton in many places, with partial compensation or small drop. For example, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi increased to about 1990-2000 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Sichuan and Chongqing increased to about 2060-2135 yuan / ton, the receiving price of urea in fuhefei plant in Linyi region of Shandong Province increased to 2120-2140 yuan / ton, and the price of urea in northeast region increased Now, the mainstream ex factory quotation is about 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation may be adjusted. The industry is generally worried and even bearish about the domestic urea market in the later period. Is it wrong to pay the printing mark, but not wrong to pay? It is necessary to pay attention to the recent changes in the supply and demand of the domestic urea market.

First of all, the result of the bid is pending. Even if the market rumors that the total quantity of this bidding may be 1.5 million tons, there are still variables in the market in just over a week, and the result is still inconclusive. Before that, the price should be supported by speculation. In addition, due to the sharp rise of international urea prices, the focus of traders has shifted to the export market, resulting in a large backlog of port goods, which is generally in the early stage According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the total amount of urea stored in the northern port is about 500000 tons, which affects the arrival quantity of the continued collection of goods in the later stage to a certain extent, and if it flows back, it will also affect the domestic market price, so the current traders dare not act too fast.

Secondly, the start-up of urea plants is high, and there is no reduction in expectations in the short term, on the contrary, there is a slight upward trend. Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of some markets is slightly limited. After the completion of environmental protection inspection, the start-up of enterprises will return to normal, and some urea enterprises in Northeast and Anhui have plans to resume production in the near future. In addition, we still need to pay attention to the production progress of new urea production capacity in the first half of the year. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operation rate of urea enterprises is about 59.51%, and the total daily output has increased To 167000 tons, the overall supply volume is high and continues to increase, with a slight surplus in some parts, leading to increased resistance to price rise, which makes it difficult to increase significantly. However, recently, the price of liquid ammonia in various places has increased, with obvious increase in North and central China markets and slight increase in other markets, supporting urea.

Thirdly, the overall performance of domestic industrial and agricultural demand is general, and the local start-up is slow. In industry, the overall start-up level of compound fertilizer enterprises is slightly higher than 50%, the urea stock still needs to be consumed, and the price of urea is high, the price rise of compound fertilizer is hindered, and the cost pressure is large. Therefore, some compound fertilizer enterprises have increased the purchase volume of small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride to replace part of urea; the demand of agriculture is scattered, the supply of large agricultural materials is sufficient, and the market is seriously inverted The grassroots wait and see, lack of single support.

Finally, in a comprehensive way, India standard is undoubtedly good for the domestic urea market, which supports its price rise. In addition, there is still domestic demand, so it is reasonable for the two to collide. But after all, the domestic urea enterprises start at a high level, and the supply of goods is large, which affects the price rise. It is expected that the price of urea in the near future, supported by the printing standard and demand, will still have a small rise space in some parts of the market, and how long it will last depends on the printing standard results and the start-up of urea enterprises.