Mid spring is over, and Qingming is approaching. The 24 solar terms are summarized well. Qingming is busy planting wheat, and Guyu is planting fields. The sales progress of chemical fertilizer market is pushed backward. It can be seen that the spring demand of many places has been basically met at the present stage, and it is only the northeast, northwest and other places where corn and rice will be planted after Guyu.

Looking back on the previous market, the urea market in spring performed well, which was still within the expectation. Taking a large urea enterprise in Shandong as an example, the ex factory quotation gradually rose from 1820 yuan / ton in mid January to 2180 yuan / ton at the end of February, and then fell sharply to 2020 yuan / ton before and after March 8, and then rose to the current 2120 yuan / ton. It is obvious that the increase is more than the decrease, and most of the market in spring The price of time is higher.

So what will happen to urea market in summer? In the fertilizer net car think summer urea will rise, must arrange!

First of all, domestic demand will perform better in summer. In spring, the price is high, and the agricultural dealers are reluctant to take the goods. The current sales season is coming to an end, and many urea market people's warehouses are empty. They are waiting for the price to drop in April, and then they will study how to replenish the urea warehouse in summer, or they are waiting for the release of more than 4 million tons of national chemical fertilizer in April. The details are not yet known, especially the recent printing standard, which is expected to be released in China The standard quantity will reach 800000-900000 tons. Considering the 600000 tons of storage in Hong Kong, urea enterprises will execute export orders one after another in a short period of time. Industrial compound fertilizer enterprises and agricultural dealers can only take goods at high prices or wait and see for a while. Recently, many people choose to wait and see. After the price of urea goes down, these people will take urea, and the time to take urea may be more concentrated. After all, export is an unknown number, If the export remains at a high level, the domestic urea price will not drop too much during the intermission period of spring and summer.

Secondly, the international market has just started to decline. Once there is a large capital flow, the international urea price may rise at any time. As a rule, the international market cools down greatly every time the standard printing is finished. However, when we see the increase of uncertainty factors, or the sudden rise of international prices, or the passive rise of domestic capital flow, or the recent surge of urea futures by about 100 yuan / ton, the downstream buyers of urea in China dare not rush to take the goods ahead of time, but are more likely to take the goods along with the purchase and sale, and are likely to concentrate on taking the goods At the end of the month / at some point in May, it's natural to see another surge.

Thirdly, although the supply is high, when it comes to the spring and summer intermission period, some urea enterprises may go to the routine maintenance period, or there are some small problems with the equipment, and the price can be appropriately raised for the copy of short-term insufficient supply. Recently, due to the dual control of energy consumption, urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia have reduced production or stopped production. As the price of liquid ammonia rises day by day, some urea enterprises have changed to produce liquid ammonia appropriately. The daily output of urea has been reduced from 168000 tons to 158000 tons. If these Inner Mongolia enterprises resume production / fully open in early April, and urea enterprises in other regions reduce production appropriately, it is still possible to assist the rise of urea price.

To sum up, if the price of urea falls a lot during the spring and summer intermission period in April, the compound fertilizer enterprises may take urea for high nitrogen production in advance, and the price of urea will stabilize and rebound. The agricultural dealers will either follow or follow with the purchase and sale, and the urea market will rise in summer. In view of the variables in the international market and China's urea production, the range and duration of the price rise of urea still need to be observed .