Accompanying the wheat harvest activities in various regions, it means that the summer fertilizer market has entered the final replenishment stage. Although the market is approaching its end, the fertilizer market is fluctuating, especially for urea. After a long period of price reduction, the urea market has gradually stabilized and rebounded strongly, with surprising price fluctuations. The price of urea has significantly increased, and the cost of composite fertilizer raw materials has changed. As an important raw material for high nitrogen fertilizer production, the rebound in the urea market is undoubtedly an absolute benefit for it. However, as of now, the quotations of composite fertilizer enterprises have mostly remained stable, with only a few low-end prices experiencing a slight increase.

When the domestic seasonal demand meets the international urea bidding, it seems "reasonable" for the urea market to stabilize and rebound. However, in view of the end of the summer market and the unclear results of the printing, there is still some uncertainty about the long-term trend of the urea market. If the subsequent price fails to continue to firm, it will not only affect the market trend in the closing stage of the summer fertilizer, but also inhibit the start of the autumn compound fertilizer market, There are still many difficulties faced by compound fertilizers, and currently most compound fertilizer companies are more inclined to quickly digest existing inventory and strive for a "light weight" start to the autumn market.

Firstly, it is difficult for other raw materials to be supported by price increases. The rise in urea prices has restored overall confidence in the fertilizer market, and the atmosphere of the ammonium chloride market has changed. However, in terms of supply and demand, the ammonium chloride market may still be under pressure; The weak and stable market of monoammonium is the main factor, and during the off-season of market demand, compound fertilizer factories only purchase according to demand. Monoammonium enterprises have high inventory pressure, and raw material costs are currently not favorable; The downward trend of Potassium chloride slowed down, and the market began to consolidate after the continuous downward trend. The long-term trend is still pessimistic. Therefore, a return to high urea prices alone may not be enough to drive a large-scale rebound in compound fertilizer prices.

Secondly, the demand for replenishment is booming but difficult to sustain. In addition to the raw material market, downstream demand is also important for the trend of composite fertilizer market. In the first half of the year, the composite fertilizer market was not warm or hot, and downstream demand has always been in a state of low demand during the peak season, and the start time of the terminal market is relatively late. At present, the demand for replenishment in summer is booming. Due to the small amount of downstream stock in the early stage, not only the mainstream compound fertilizer factories are slightly tight in shipment, but also the small real estate factories are in short supply in the peak season. However, it is expected that the duration in some regions may not be long. According to official reports, the national wheat harvest progress was over 40%, and the space for downstream summer fertilizer replenishment is narrowing. The impact of sporadic replenishment demand on the market in the later stage is very limited.
Finally, the factory started to reduce production and prepare for autumn. Since the end of May, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has shown a downward trend. The operating level during the entire summer period is lower than the same period in previous years, and the main reason is the unfavorable market situation. Downstream companies are not willing to hastily reserve in advance, and factories are even more afraid to purchase a large amount of raw materials for production. Even so, the inventory pressure of some factories has not been avoided. Considering that there is not much demand for replenishment in the future, and there is currently no clear news in the autumn market, The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories will continue to decline in the future, and the promotion of raw material procurement will also be more cautious.

To sum up, the unexpected rebound of urea price can be regarded as a small episode before the end of the fertilizer market in summer. As for how to open the compound fertilizer market in autumn, it needs to be further judged by combining the raw material market and the supply and demand relationship.