Recently, urea could have stabilized or slightly decreased, mainly due to the lack of significant positive support. However, the international situation has changed recently, and futures have fluctuated strongly, causing urea to start rising steadily again. However, the actual demand for urea in industry and agriculture is not the peak season. Compound fertilizer enterprises have entered the mid to late stage of high nitrogen fertilizer production, and industrial buyers only purchase according to demand. Agricultural distributors are also cautious in purchasing urea at high prices. Faced with speculation, some urea factories have issued proposals to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and it is expected that urea prices will mainly consolidate at high levels in the short term.

Although there are suspicions of hype, urea does have something to stir up, which is incomparable to other fertilizers. However, the recent market for ammonium nitrate is also relatively ideal, with only a few companies offering quotes, mostly executing pre orders. Currently, 55% of powdered ammonium nitrate in Hubei is priced at 2950-3000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and high-end is priced at 3050 yuan. There are already new transaction orders negotiated, and it is expected that pending orders can be executed until mid to early June. In the short term, the price of ammonium nitrate should remain stable and rise slightly. Recently, the demand for industrial ammonium has also been high, mainly due to a large number of purchase orders in the new energy sector. It is reported that 73% of industrial ammonium has been priced at over 6300 yuan in the market. It can be seen that the overall market of ammonium nitrate is good, with prices increasing recently. However, in the long run, attention still needs to be paid to when autumn demand will arrive. The industry should be cautious and wait and see when to purchase raw materials in the later stage. Why is that?

The recent increase in the price of monoammonium has not resulted in a large number of transactions. The prices of monoammonium purchased downstream in the early stage are mostly cheaper, and the price after the price increase is about 200 yuan higher than in the early stage. In fact, the downstream acceptance is not high. However, some companies that lack raw materials recently are eager to purchase, so they will take some high priced monoammonium appropriately. The quantity is not large, and it is expected that the summer demand will end at the latest in mid to early June. In recent summer, compound fertilizers will be shipped one after another, and the remaining production time is not long. It is not known when the autumn demand will arrive in the later stage, and some compound fertilizer companies are not in a hurry to purchase autumn demand. It is expected that the demand in June may run out.

One of the reasons for the low demand is that many enterprises do not accept orders, resulting in tight supply. In the early stage, in order to alleviate the pressure on enterprises, enterprises adopted policies such as price reduction and minimum guarantee to accept some orders, gradually depleting their inventory. There were also many pending orders, and restrictions or temporary suspensions on accepting orders also made it difficult for downstream traders to have a large amount of goods. Later, the overall market demand for ammonium nitrate was difficult, and some enterprises limited or stopped production for a period of time. The overall operating rate of ammonium nitrate was low, or some devices switched production and raw materials were supplied to granular ammonium nitrate or industrial ammonium nitrate. Therefore, the supply of powdered ammonium is indeed tight to this day.

The support for raw material costs is still strong. Initially, it was speculated that the price of phosphate ore may decrease. However, after entering May, the overall fertilizer market has rebounded, and there is no reason to lower the price of raw material phosphate ore. Recently, the supply of high-grade phosphate ore in some regions has been slightly tight, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The price of sulfur is mainly stable and fluctuating, and has been maintained at around 900 yuan, making it difficult to make significant adjustments in the short term.

In summary, favorable factors for ammonium nitrate dominate, and there is still a possibility of price increase. However, some industries are still cautious about whether the subsequent demand can be connected. There may be a slowdown in ammonium nitrate demand in mid to late June, and there is a risk of a decline. It is still necessary to pay attention to factors such as autumn demand in the later period.