At present, the composite fertilizer market is generally in a period of intermission between summer and autumn festivals. With the decrease in order quantity, not only has the delivery speed of composite fertilizer enterprises slowed down, but the overall operating rate has also declined significantly. Especially in the past two weeks, according to China Fertilizer Network, as of the end of this weekend, the operating rate of factories in Hefei has dropped to about 38% nationwide, a decrease of about 4% compared to the beginning of the month. During the off-season, the market's purchasing and sales have weakened, and there has been little change in the compound fertilizer market. Before the autumn fertilizer prices and policies are fully clarified, upstream enterprises tend to stabilize prices and wait and see.

Although the compound fertilizer market is relatively calm, the raw material market is not weak in the off-season. The urea market has always been a topic of constant discussion, with prices fluctuating and rebounding every time they reach a low point. Recently, it has remained at a relatively high level. Generally speaking, the demand for urea in autumn is not as high as in summer, but the fluctuation of the urea market has a significant impact on the sentiment of the autumn market. If the urea market can remain relatively strong in the future, the launch of the autumn fertilizer market will be smoother, otherwise it may continue to remain stagnant.

Firstly, downstream bearish sentiment remains unchanged. In fact, from the summer aftermarket, it can be seen that downstream procurement activities are still very cautious, especially grassroots farmers, who are not willing to buy goods in advance before they have time to use fertilizers. The main reason is lack of confidence in the future market of compound fertilizers, fearing that prices may fall. Similarly, the autumn market has not yet started on a large scale, and the prices of raw materials remain high during the off-season. The composite fertilizer market has not cooled down appropriately, making it difficult to introduce autumn prices. Considering the current cost of raw materials, the prices of composite fertilizers in the early autumn may be on par with the current level. However, the long-term trend is uncertain, and as a result, the downstream acceptance may not be high.

Secondly, opinions on the raw material market vary. The early autumn raw material market is naturally important, but what is more crucial is whether it can continue to be strong during the peak season. Currently, there are some differences in the views of upstream and downstream on the future market. The off-season ammonium chloride market is operating weakly, with downstream wait-and-see sentiment and overall low prices; Some ammonium nitrate factories do not provide quotations at the moment, mainly supplying pending orders. In autumn, the demand for ammonium nitrate is high, and the supply is temporarily tight, with positive support still dominating; The potassium chloride market has been sideways for a period of time, but there has been no definite news about the large contract. The direction is unclear, so it is still unclear whether the long-term raw material market will rise or fall. Although the industry hopes for a decline in raw materials, there are also some factors that support the decline, but there has been no significant decline in the market for a long time.

Finally, why is the urea market crucial? On the other hand, in the summer fertilizer market stage, the demand for high nitrogen corn fertilizer is relatively high, and the price of urea may have a greater impact on the price of compound fertilizer than in autumn, because high phosphorus products are mainly used as fertilizer for wheat in autumn. However, the urea market is still particularly critical. The first reason is that the fluctuation of the urea market will affect the purchasing and sales activities of the phosphorus and potassium fertilizer markets. Often, the higher the urea price, the better the prices of other raw materials will also tend to improve; The second reason is that the fluctuations in the urea market have a significant impact on the sentiment of the grassroots market. Once we hear about the significant fluctuations in urea prices, the pace of grassroots compound fertilizer procurement activities will change accordingly.

In summary, for the autumn fertilizer market to start smoothly, it is necessary to maintain a relatively strong raw material market. Next, we will focus on the market changes of various fertilizer varieties in early July.