Entering August, not only did the compound fertilizer market perform poorly, with difficult sales, but urea also experienced a similar trend. The overall market first rose and then fell, and recently the mainstream domestic ex factory prices have fallen to around 2000-2100 yuan (ton price, the same below), hovering at a crossroads. Considering the cost of enterprises and other issues, the psychological bottom price of urea in the industry generally remains above 2000 yuan. In addition, some companies' price reductions have shown some effect in attracting orders. Yesterday, there was a stabilizing trend or a tentative increase in local prices, but from the actual demand performance of the market, the market trend has not improved significantly. Recently, the price may have been consolidating at a low level, and the market performance is relatively weak.

Recently, with the continuous decline in urea prices, there has been a strong wait-and-see and pessimistic sentiment in the market. Due to the impact of the off-season for agricultural demand, the sales market is often in a state of price but no market. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi region is 2030 yuan, with sporadic prices falling below 2000 yuan. However, the price of large particles has increased slightly. The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shaanxi region is around 2106 yuan, and in Shandong region it has dropped to around 2030-2100 yuan. Many companies often buy orders at low prices; The progress of downstream market delivery is slow, with compound fertilizer factories in Linyi offering a delivery price of 2090 yuan for urea. Grassroots demand is light, and there is sufficient supply in many markets. The local platform price in Jiangsu and Anhui is around 2120 yuan. In the process of continuous decline in urea prices, the related product liquid ammonia market is also running weakly, with prices fluctuating at low levels and significant cost pressure on enterprises, adding insult to injury to the urea market.

Firstly, the supply of urea shows an increasing trend, and the supply pressure gradually becomes apparent. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the current daily production of urea is about 170000 tons. With the support of maintenance, it has decreased compared to the previous period. However, in the second half of the year, some urea enterprises that have stopped production in Anhui, Inner Mongolia and other places will gradually resume production. In addition, the remaining new production capacity is also approaching, and there will be a significant increase in supply; The current supply-demand contradiction in the liquid ammonia market is severe, and after a significant decline in domestic prices, there is still no fundamental relief. The overall market is operating at a low level, and some enterprises are shifting their production focus towards urea; In addition, due to the high load operation of urea enterprises, there has been a relatively sufficient supply of goods in the market recently, and there should be some inventory reserves in some areas.

Secondly, the demand for urea is weak. In terms of agriculture, it is currently in the off-season, and the demand in the grassroots market is weak, with only scattered fertilization and supplementary orders in some areas; Large and medium-sized traders currently have no intention of reserving urea, operate back-to-back, and winter storage has not yet been initiated. Traders' enthusiasm for reserves is not high, and their fertilizer preparation habits and concepts have also changed to some extent in the past two years; The delivery progress of compound fertilizer factories in the industrial sector has deviated from the original expectations, with slow delivery and pressure on finished fertilizer shipments, resulting in a low operating rate for large factories. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, this week's rate has dropped to about 37%, and the demand for raw material fertilizer urea is limited; In addition, urea exports are still restricted, which lacks a boost to the domestic market.

Recently, there has been little change in coal prices, and urea companies lack cost support; The volatile operation of the futures market has a certain impact on the sentiment and operation of the spot market; Furthermore, due to extreme weather conditions such as rainfall, there may be adjustments to the use of fertilizers in certain areas.

Overall, the recent urea market has been affected by a combination of positive and negative factors, mainly influenced by factors such as supply, market sentiment, and futures. It is expected that local quotations may fluctuate, but overall performance is still relatively weak.