The 24th National Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Conference will be officially held tomorrow. Prior to the conference, the overall changes in the compound fertilizer market are very limited. However, with the gradual launch of winter storage markets in various regions, the compound fertilizer winter storage market has become slightly clear. Some formula products have a small amount of winter storage prices. Taking 45% chlorine based balanced fertilizer as an example (such as 15-15-15), it is heard that the transaction price of some new winter storage products is less than 2200 yuan/ton, which is about 50-100 yuan/ton lower than the level at the end of autumn. Will the compound fertilizer winter storage market really be weak?

Although the initial market situation for compound fertilizer winter storage is not ideal, as an important indicator of the trend of the raw material market, the urea market has been continuously fluctuating recently, and its price often shows signs of rising. Combined with fundamental factors, the urea price may not have a strong upward trend, but it will not "plummet" in the short term. For the compound fertilizer winter storage market, the urea market is currently neither good nor very bad. The "low opening" of compound fertilizer winter storage prices may not be entirely affected by raw material costs.

Firstly, the cost of raw materials has remained relatively stable. Since the end of the autumn compound fertilizer market, the fluctuation range of raw material prices has narrowed. The price of ammonium chloride has dropped to a low level, and there is a basis for the market to explore an upward trend. Currently, the mainstream quotation is mainly stable; Before the conference on phosphate compound fertilizer, the ammonium market remained stable, and many companies held their previous quotes or temporarily stopped reporting or accepting orders. In the future, new prices may be introduced depending on the situation; The potassium chloride market is stable and slightly firm, with weak market transactions, but low prices are currently difficult to find. Therefore, the cost of raw materials for winter storage has not formed too many negative effects, and the initial price of winter storage for compound fertilizer enterprises may only slightly decline.

Secondly, the emotional transformation of downstream winter storage is limited. The compound fertilizer market is not optimistic, especially the long-term price trend is worrying. Distributors are extremely cautious in making payments and stocking up. Regardless of the current winter storage prices, downstream enthusiasm is generally average. In addition to the suppression of winter storage demand by the compound fertilizer market, the willingness of downstream winter storage has decreased in the past two years. The main reason is that the risk of winter storage has increased compared to usual. Pre stocking not only does not benefit but also easily leads to losses. In addition, the low prices of crop products. Therefore, before the winter storage market becomes completely clear and stable, downstream winter storage purchasing and sales activities may heat up slowly.

Finally, wait for the guidance of the conference on phosphate compound fertilizer. As an important time point for the winter storage market of compound fertilizers, after the National Conference on Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizers, the winter storage purchase and sales activities in the compound fertilizer market may gradually accelerate. Some compound fertilizer factories will hold dealer marketing meetings in key areas of winter storage, and the winter storage pre collection prices and policies will also be revealed at that time. The possibility of a comprehensive and clear mainstream market for winter storage has increased, thanks to the strengthened directionality of the raw material market trend after the National Conference on Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer. Therefore, compound fertilizer enterprises that have already introduced winter storage prices may make corresponding adjustments in the future.

Overall, the urea market is seeking opportunities for price increases amidst fluctuations, while winter storage of compound fertilizers is facing pressure to reduce prices. However, specific changes still need to be further observed.